The NBA Finals continue tonight and we will see the San Antonio Spurs travel to American Airlines Arena to take on the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their best-of seven series. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ABC. Vegas odds have the Heat listed as 5.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 197.
Analysis: The Teams split the two games in San Antonio, but the Spurs have now grabbed back their homecourt advantage with an 111-92 win in Miami on Tuesday night. The Spurs are now 34-16 SU on the road this year. The Spurs have averaged 106.4 ppg on 48.9% shooting in the playoffs thus far and leading the way has been Tony Parker, who is averaging 17.4 ppg, while Tim Duncan is a close 2nd at 16.7 ppg. Manu Ginobili (14.5 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (13.6 ppg) round out the double digit scorers for the team in the post-season. Defensively the Spurs have been solid in the playoffs, as they come in allowing just 98 ppg on 44.7% shooting.
The Miami Heat looked like they might be able to steal game 1 of this series, but then cramps hit Lebron James and the Spurs finished the game on a 16-3 run to win game 1 by 15. Game 2 went the way of the Spurs, but then Miami got blasted on their homecourt in game three and are now in a 2-1 hole. The Heat have gone 40-10 SU at home this year. The Heat have averaged 101.7 ppg on 50% shooting overall this year, while in the post-season they have put up 98.4 ppg on 49.8% shooting. The post-season scoring is led by Lebron James, who is averaging 27.2 ppg so far, while also leading the team in rebounding at 6.8 rpg and assists (4.9). Dwayne Wade (18.6 ppg) and Chris Bosh (15.2 ppg) have also averaged in double figures for the Heat so far. Defensively the Heat have been very solid in the playoffs, allowing just 94.4 ppg overall, but vs the Spurs they have allowed 105.7 ppg.
Pick: Going with the Under in this one. The Heat played crappy defense in game 3 and you can bet that they will come out looking for some defensive intensity, plus will be looking to play at a slower pace, which will definitely keep the scoring down. The Heat do play very good defense at home, while the Spurs have played good defense in the playoffs. This one should also be closer, which would lead to a possession type game at the end, which will also keep the scoring down late. I look for this one to be played around 190.
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