Tonight the Vanderbilt Commodores will travel to McKeon Pavilion in Moraga, California take on the St Mary's Gaels the 1st round of the NIT Tournament. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas betting odds have the Gaels listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 142.5.
Analysis: The Vanderbilt Commodores had a decent year, but it just wasn't enough to get them into the Big Dance. Vandy did with their last 5 regular season games, but lost in their first game in the SEC Tournament to Tennessee. Overall Vandy went 19-13, which includes a 4-7 mark on the road. Vandy has gone 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss and The Commodores have been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 109th in scoring (69.7 ppg), 34th in shooting (47.1%), 31st in 3 point shooting (38.6%) and 117th in FT shooting (70.7%). The defense for this team has been solid this year, ranking 99th in points allowed (63.5 ppg), 74th in defensive FG% (40.6%) and 169th in 3 point defense (34.0%).
The St Mary's Galloping Gaels had a solid year as they went 21-9 overall, but a shocking 17 point loss to the Portland Pilots in their first game in the WCC Tournament did not do them any favors at all. The Gaels have now lost 3 of their last 4 games but 3 of those games were on the road and they are at home for this one where they are 14-4 on the year. St Mary's has gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss, but just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Gaels have been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 128th in scoring (69.2 ppg), 64th in shooting (46.0%), 49th in 3 point shooting (37.9%) and 101st in FT shooting (71.1%). The defense for this team has been solid this year, ranking 101st in points allowed (63.6 ppg), 235th in defensive FG% (44.1%) and 146th in 3 point defense (33.6%).
Pick: Going with the Over here. I know tat i have been stating that the Shot Clock rules have been overexaggerated in the OU lines, but this is not one of the. Vandy is a good 3 point shooting team and St Mary's has really pushed tempo at home. The Gaels have averaged 72.4 ppg at home, while Vandy has averaged 71.8 ppg on 50.4% shooting in their last 5 games. I can see this game getting into a foul fest at the end which will give us the extra points to put the game over the total.
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