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Stories

Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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NFL Picks and Odds on Bengals, Texans, Broncos and Raiders

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (odds -11): This is NFL STEAMROLLER SUNDAY.  There may be no better example.  NFL teams who outrush their opponent by 30 or more yards in a game are 57-21 ATS this season.  That includes 31-5 ATS (86%) in the last 4 weeks.  Cleveland's offense has evaporated.  With few skill position players, they are averaging just 12 PPG in their last 5 games. They enter this matchup on a 2-12-1 ATS slide.  For the season, they are being outrushed 127/4.0 to 88/3.3.  The Houston offense remains in high gear.  They average 26 PPG and 395 YPG.  At the point of attack, they are outrushing their opponents 142/4.2 to 97/4.3.  Big reason for this 5-3 SU, ATS record is an improved defense under 1st year DC Phillips.  Last year this team allowed 377 YPG. This year, they have improved to just 287 YPG including an allowance of only 326 total yards the last 2 weeks.  Free NFL Pick: With numbers like those, it can only be predicted that Houston will STEAMROLL Cleveland into submission by a comfortable double digit margin. 

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (odds -9): I gave "5 minute wonder" Tim Tebow the opportunity to carry over that momentum into last week's game vs. Detroit.  Though the Broncos outrushed Detroit 195-119 (a 76% chance to cover), they fell victim to a -3 in the net turnover column (a 93% chance to fail).  But Tebow was miserable leading them through the air.  The Broncos gained just 108 yards in the first 3 quarters.  Now, Tebow has a 47% completion rate and has been sacked 13 times.  Not that projected Oakland QB Palmer was much better in his debut.  He threw 3 picks in just half a game.  It was all part of the Raiders 28-0 shutout loss on this field.  With 2 weeks to prepare, he should be far more in tune with an Oakland attack with which he should mesh perfectly.  As such, I would be remiss if I didn't urge QB Palmer to simply handoff to RB McFadden.  A quick look at the history book tells us why.  Oakland is 4-0 SU, ATS in this series with an average score of 35-19.  In those 4 games, they have averaged 256 RYPG.  Oakland leads the NFL with a ground game that averages 159/5.1.  It will be no surprise to this bureau if the Raiders once again dominate the point of attack and STEAMROLL the Broncos into submission. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (odds -3) 4:05PM: The weak schedule of the Bengals will soon expose them.  In the next six weeks they will be playing Baltimore and Pittsburgh a combined three times.  For now, however, they can take advantage of a mediocre Tennessee team.  Last week, the Titan's won 27-10 on this field vs the Colts.  But in that contest, Indy outrushed them 158-96.  That is where the Titans are exposed today.  For the season they are being outrushed 129/4.3 to 69/3.1.  That offensive output is the lowest in the NFL.  And that has been against a schedule that is nearly as weak as that of the Bengals.  Cincy survived Seattle last week without RB Benson.  His return sparks a ground game that will signify offensive dominance with the Bengals ground game.  They could easily STEAMROLL the Tennessee defensive front. But the improved defense has been the Bengals real calling card this season.  After allowing 25 PPG LY, this unit has ceded only 18 PPG on 297 yards this season. The combination of the far superior running game and defense lead to a continuation of Cincinnati's success in this role as underdog. 

Movie Free Picks: Bengals at Titans - Best Bet from Marco DAngelo
Are Bengals Fradulant? and Steelers Look Ahead for Bengals? plus other factors NFL bettors need to know about Bengals at Titans (Sunday, November 6, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.