Washington (-2) at St. Louis 1:00 PM EST: The 2-1 SU Redskins are in the league’s toughest scheduling spot this week.  They play on the road following a divisional MNF road game at Dallas.  Very tough to get excited about an 0-3 SU, ATS St. Louis team that is #31 in the NFL with a -47 AFP.  This is a team that was having a huge turnaround season last year before they finished 1-3 SU, ATS.  It means they enter today’s matchup on a confidence-busting 1-6 SU, ATS run with one of the worst sets of offensive and defensive numbers in the league.  I can understand the offensive inefficiency.  QB Bradford has been dinged, WR Amendola, one of his favorite targets, remains out, and their best runner RB Jackson will just be rounding into form this week.  Yet, they have been able to translate it into just 12 PPG.  And what’s the excuse for a defensive front that has allowed 175/5.5.  That is the worst in the league.  Nonetheless, it is desperation week for the Rams whom we will give one more chance to right their season at a price that has been adjusted by more than a TD from opening week. 

Tennessee at Cleveland (-1) 1:00 PM EST: Each of these teams enters at 2-1 SU/BBW.  It is of concern that Cleveland has done it against the easiest schedule in the league (Cinci, Indy and Miami) who are just 1-8 SU.  Perhaps last week’s home come-back victory against Miami will spark confidence for a team that is on runs of 2-9 overall and 0-6 ATS on this field.  A virtually non-existent passing game fires for just 57% completions and 4.4 OYPA.  The rush defense allows 129/4.0.  They now must face a Titan defense allowing just 14 PPG, 261 yards and 4.3 YPPL.  But the Titans have their own issues being just 1-5 ATS away of late, have lost WR Britt for the season, and have yet to get RB Johnson untracked resulting in a running game that averages just 52/2.4.  Small edge to the Browns in this one. 

Buffalo (-3) at Cincinnati 1:00 PM EST: I am going to call this the Lone Ranger’s Contrary Game of the Week. The Bills are clearly one of the surprise teams of the NFL. They are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS with a plus 51 AFP, largest in the league. They are off huge comeback wins versus Oakland, the monumental upset of New England, a team who had beaten them 15 consecutive times. That however, came courtesy of an uncharacteristic four INT from New England QB Brady. Last season they trailed this Bengals team 31-14 before rallying for a 49-31 win. How do you possibly get excited for a Bengals team that is just 1-2 SU with recent loses to the Niners and Broncos, a pair of mediocre NFL entities. The Bills 38 PPG and running game of 153/5.5 is respected.  But the Bengals have a surprisingly good defensive front at 88/2.9, a defense allowing just 176 YPG and just 4.5 YPPL. Furthering our cause is the Bills plus 5 NET turnover margin, a number that begs for reversal. The inevitable letdown by Buffalo combined with the Cincinnati defense make this your contrary play of the week at a line that has been adjusted by nearly a TD based on the Bills plus 51 AFP.

Free Picks: Bills at Bengals Betting
What NFL bettors need to know about Bills at Bengals (Sunday, October 2, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including predictions from Stephen Nover and analysis from host Marco D'Angelo.