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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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    06/26/2022 4:05 PM

NCAA Tournament Odds Louisville Cardinals vs Oregon Ducks

The Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament is here and we will see the Oregon Ducks take on the Louisville Cardinals at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianaolis, Indiana. The game is scheduled for a 7:15 pm (Eastern) start time and will be televised on CBS. Currently the Odds for the game have Louisville favored by 10.5 points while the total sits at 130.

Analysis: As impressive as Oregon was in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the 12th-seeded Ducks will need to be even better when they face No. 1 seed Louisville in the Midwest Region semifinal tonight. Oregon advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2007 by defeating No. 5 seed Oklahoma State and No. 4 Saint Louis last weekend in San Jose, but the Ducks committed a total of 36 turnovers in the wins. The Ducks have won five straight, including a win over UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament title game. If they can limit their turnovers, the Ducks have the firepower to make things interesting. Kazemi is averaging 16.5 rebounds in the tournament, and Oregon dominated the boards in its first two tournament games. Freshman guard Damyean Dotson averaged 20 points last weekend as the Ducks made 16-of-33 shots from 3-point range. The Ducks feature a balanced offense, with six players averaging at least eight points.  Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only one No. 12 seed — Missouri in 2002 — has advanced to the Elite Eight.

Louisville is peaking at the right time with 12 straight wins, including a dominant 78-61 victory over Syracuse in the Big East tournament title game March 16. While the Ducks were able to overcome their miscues in the first two rounds, Louisville might not be so forgiving. The Cardinals, who routed 16th-seeded North Carolina A&T and No. 8 Colorado State, use a tenacious defense to force an average of 19 turnovers. The Cardinals are second in the nation in turnover margin (plus-6.3) and steals (11), and they’re facing an Oregon team that led the Pac-12 with 14.2 turnovers per game. Coach Rick Pitino compared Oregon’s up-tempo offense to Missouri, which lost 84-61 to the Cardinals on Nov. 23. The Cardinals’ backcourt of Russ Smith and Peyton Siva ranks among the best in the country, and Smith averaged 25 points and five steals in two games last weekend. Center Gorgui Dieng could play a key role in neutralizing Oregon senior forward Arsalan Kazemi. Rick Pitino is 44-16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Pick: I really like the Cardinals in this one. I know that Oregon was a much better team than their 12 seed would indicate and yes they surprised with wins over Oklahoma State and St Louis, but I just don't feel that they are close to the level of the Cardinals. The Ducks did win their first 2 games of the tourney, but they also turned the ball over a combined 36 times in those games. Now they get to face one of the better ball hawking teams in the nation and they won't be able to overcome those turnovers vs this squad.  The Cardinals are 2nd in the nation in steals (11 per game) and should be able to pressure this Ducks squad into many mistakes. Louisville has a big edge on defense as they allow just 57.6 ppg overall and 60.2 ppg away from home, while the Ducks have allowed 63.2 ppg overall and 71.2 away from home. That is really important here because this will almost be like a true road game for the Ducks as this game is Indianapolis and the Cards will have a huge following for this one. Dana Altman has one a fine job for the Ducks, but I give the Cards the coaching edge with Pitino running the show. Just too many edges for Louisville in this one. The Have the coaching edge, a sizeable defensive edge and a bias home crowd. We also note that the Oregon offense is similar to Missouri's offense and the Cards beat them 84-61 earlier in the year. Louisville is the best team in the nation and they will not take this team lightly. I look for them to win by 17+ in this one. 

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