NCAA basketball on Tuesday night and it is the Finals of the Horizon League. In this matchup we will see the Wisc- Milwaukee Panthers take on the Wright State Raiders at the Nutter Center in Dayton, Ohio. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Vegas odds have the Raiders listed as 6 point favorites, while the total sits at 129.
Analysis: The Milwaukee Panthers come in at 20-13 overall, while going 10-9 in the Horizon League. They got to the finals by beating Detroit, Valpo and Green Bay. The Panthers average just 71 ppg on 43.4% shooting overall and they shoot just 32.3% from long range, which is 270th in the nation. The team is paced by Jordan Adams, who averages 14.9 ppg. Kyle Kelm averages 12.4 ppg, while Matt Tiby averages 12.3 ppg and leads the team in rebounding at 6.6 rpg. Austin Arians rounds out the double digit scorers by putting in 10.3 ppg. Defensively this team is not all that good as they allow 70.7 ppg (200th) on 43.5% shooting (173rd).
Wright State also comes in at 20-13 overall this year, while going 12-6 in the Horizon League. Wright State beat the Panther at home by 16 and lost to them on the road by 4 points. The Raiders are a below average offensive team as they come in averaging just 67.5 ppg (275th) on 45.6% shooting (109th). They hit their free throws well at 73.8% to rank 42nd in the nation. The offense is led by A.J Pacher, who averages 10.8 ppg. A.J is the only player on the team, but 9 players overall do average at least 5 ppg. On defense this is a very good team as they rank 21st in the nation in points allowed, giving up just 62.1 ppg, while ranking 126th in defensive FG% (42.7%) and 86th in 3 point defense (32.5%).
Pick: Going with the Under in this one. Normally championship games breed tightness and a slower paced games and i see that here. The teams met twice this year and both games had an OU line of 128 and both games, went over tyhe total, but barely as one game put up 130 points and the other put up 132 points. Now the previous 6 in the series went 5-0-1 to the Under, with no more than 116 points scored in any of those games. This one should revert back to those games. Wright State is already a slow pace team that really relies on their defense to win games. They come in allowing just 63.5 ppg overall, 59.7 ppg in neutral site games and just 60 ppg in their last 5 games overall. On Offense they have scored just 66.7 ppg overall and just 68.2 ppg in their last 5 games. They do not push tempo all that much. The Panthers come in playing solid defense right now as they have allowed just 63.5 ppg (Regulation) in their last 4 games, plus they have allowed just 61.2 ppg in the last 10 meetings with the Raiders. The Panthers are not a strong offense, scoring 70.4 ppg overall, 69.8 ppg on the road and 68 ppg in neutral site games. The Wright State defense should keep them under those numbers. This game should be a grinder, with both teams not taking chances and relying on their defenses to win it. Look for a game of right around 120 points being scored.
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