Saturday night in the NBA I will have a free pick in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Los Angeles Clippers, which will take place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The game has a start time of 10:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on NBA TV. Current Vegas betting odds have the Clippers listed as 7.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 196.5.
Analysis: The Memphis Grizzlies come with a slim half a game lead over San Antonio for the 2nd best record in the West, after beating Utah 89-88 on the road last night. The Grizzlies have now won 4 of their last 5 games and they have a 24-15 record on the road. Memphis has gone 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 9-2 the last 11 in the series. The Grizzlies have been an average offensive team this year, ranking 18th in scoring (98.4 ppg), 7th in shooting, 20th in 3 point shooting and 6th in FT shooting. Defensively the Grizzlies have been very good this year, ranking 2nd in points allowed (95.0 ppg), 10th in defensive FG% and 18th in 3 point defense.
The Los Angeles Clippers come in having won 4 in a row, which includes a 2 game sweep of the Lakers. The Clippers are now 53-26 on the year, which includes a 28-11 mark at home and they are currently tied with Spurs for the 5th spot in the West. The Clippers have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games, but just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Clippers have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 2nd in scoring (106.8 ppg), 2nd in shooting, 3rd in 3 point shooting and 28th in FT shooting. Defensively the Clippers have been rather average, ranking 16th in points allowed (100.3 ppg), 12th in defensive FG% and 14th in 3 point defense.
Pick: Going with the under here. The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league and they need this game pretty badly, so I fully expect them to bring the defense here. Memphis has allowed just 95 ppg for the year and just 85.8 ppg in their last 5 games. The Clippers are not a great defensive team, but they have allowed just 98.2 ppg in their home games this year. The Under is 21-5-1 in the Grizzlies last 27 vs. the Western Conference and 9-1 in the Clippers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The last 2 games between these teams have put up just 176 and 177 points and I don't see this one putting up more than 190.
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