Tonight in the NBA I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks, which will take place at American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas. The game has a start time of 8:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised locally. Current Vegas betting odds have the Warriors listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 216.5.
Analysis: The Golden State Warriors come in with the best record in the NBA at 62-13 overall, which includes a 27-11 mark on the road. The Warriors have won 16 of their last 17 games overall, which includes a last second win over Phoenix on Thursday night in a game they didn't play their best in. Golden State has gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, but just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 1 days rest. The Warriors have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 1st in scoring (109.7 ppg), 1st in shooting, 1st in 3 point shooting and 9th in FT shooting. Defensively the Warriors have been solid, ranking 14th in points allowed (99.1 ppg), 1st in defensive FG% and 4th in 3 point defense.
The Dallas Mavericks are not playing good ball at the moment as they come in having won just 2 of their last 7 games, which includes a 5 point road loss at Indiana an 18 point road loss at San Antonio and a 7 point home loss to a banged up Houston squad in their last 4 games. For the year Dallas is now 46-30 overall, including 25-13 on the road, while being locked in to the 7th seed in the West. Dallas has gone 10-26-2 ATS in their last 38 vs. the Western Conference and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavericks have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 3rd in scoring (104.5 ppg), 6th in shooting, 12th in 3 point shooting and 18th in FT shooting. Defensively the Mavericks have not been so good this year, ranking 22nd in points allowed (101.4 ppg), 17th in defensive FG% and 27th in 3 point defense.
Pick: Going with the Under here. There is no doubt that Golden state can score, but they are playing good defense as well of late as they have allowed just 95.2 ppg in their last 9 games. They have allowed 106 points in each of their last 2 games, but that just has me expecting this team to lock it down on defense in this one. The Mavs have not been great on offense of late and they have played good defense at home this year. I look for this one to be played around 205 points.
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