Tonight the New Mexico Lobos will take on the Air Force Falcons in the 1st round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas Nevada. The game has a start time of 3:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on the Mountain West Network. Current Vegas betting odds have the Lobos listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 120.5.
Analysis: The New Mexico Lobos snapped their 8 game losing streak on the last day of the Regular season when they beat Wyoming by a score of 52-49 in OT. The Lobos are now just 15-15 on the year overall, while they finished at 7-11 in the MWC. The Lobos have gone 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, but just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the MWC. The Lobos have been a very poor offensive team, as they come in ranked 305th in scoring (62.0 ppg), 195th in shooting (43.2%), 308th in 3 point shooting (30.8%) and 279th in FT shooting (66.1%). Defensively the Lobos have been very good this year, ranking 28th in points allowed (59.9 ppg), 47th in defensive FG% (39.9%) and 42nd in 3 point defense (31.2%).
The Air Force Falcons have not had a good year as they come in at 13-16 overall, which includes a 6-12 mark in the MWC and a 2-11 mark in all games away from home. They did pay a bit better down the stretch winning 4 of their last 8 games. Air Force has gone 21-8 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs the MWC. The Falcons have not been a good offensive team this year, as they come in ranked 221st in scoring (65.6 ppg), 31st in shooting (47.2%), 65th in 3 point shooting (37.2%) and 296th in FT shooting (65.4%). Defensively the Falcons have been decent as they come in ranked 131st in points allowed (64.7 ppg), 233rd in defensive FG% (44.1%) and 275th in 3 point defense (36.0%).
Pick: Going with the Under in this one. Twice these teams met this year and just 102 and 108 points were scored in the games. I don't expect this one to be a whole lot different. The teams have played some higher scoring games of late, but now that they have had a few days to refresh a bit I expect the norm from these teams and that is a slow grind it out defensive battle. Both teams do like the slow pace and neither team is all that good on offense, especially away from home where Air Force has averaged just 59 ppg, while New Mexico has put up just 60.8 ppg in their away games this year. Air Force can hit the 3-ball, but New Mexico is really bad from long range, while both teams are terrible from the charity stripe. The defenses for these teams are solid, especially on the side of the Lobos as they have allowed just 59.9 ppg overall and just 62.8 ppg away from home. I just don't see enough possessions in this game for these teams to score much more than 110 points.
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