Major League Baseball on Monday afternoon and I will have a Free Pick in the game between the Houston Astros and the Baltimore Orioles, which will be played at Camden Yards in Baltimore. First pitch is scheduled for a 1:35 PM (Eastern) start time and the game will be televised locally.
Betting Odds
Astros -115
Orioles +105
Over/ Under: 7.5 -110
This is game 1 of a 3 game series between these American League foes. The Houston Astros have clearly been the surprise of Major League baseball so far this year and it doesn't appear like they are going away. Houston has won 9 of their last 12 games and are in first place in the AL West by 6.5 games over the Angels. The Orioles just lost 2 in a row at Miami and are 19-22 on the year, which puts them in 4th place in the AL East.
Houston ranks 7th in scoring (4.49 rpg), 29th in hitting (.223) and 1st in homers (64) while on the mound they are 7th in ERA (3.56) and 4th in WHIP (1.17). Houston is 12-5 in their last 17 road games and 14-2 in Keuchel's last 16 starts, but just 5-14 the last 19 games in the series.
The Orioles rank 11th in scoring (4.44 rpg), 10th in hitting (.258) and 8th in homers (46), while on the mound they are 16th in ERA (4.00) and 14th in WHIP (1.28).Baltimore is 42-16 in their last 58 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 20-5 in Chen's last 25 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, but just 3-11 in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Getting the ball for Houston today will be Dallas Keuchel who is the Ace of this staff and who is 6-0 with a 1.67 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP on the year overall, while on the road he has gone 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA. Dallas has 2 career starts vs the Orioles and he has gone 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in those starts.
Getting the ball for the Orioles today will be Wei-Yin Chen, who is 1-3 on the year, but with a solid 2.90 ERA, while at home he has gone 0-2 with a 3.18 ERA. Chen has 3 career starts vs the Astros and has yet to lose to the, gong 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA.
Pick: Both pitchers have some nice Under trends to follow and this the way I will look in this game. The Under is 12-3 in Keuchel's last 15 starts as a favorite, while the Under is 15-3 in Chen's last 18 starts vs the AL West. Dallas Keuchel has been excellent this year, posting a 1.67 ERA on the year so far, while on the road he has a solid 2.05 ERA. Wei-Yin Chen has a 3.18 ERA at home this year and he has allowed 2 ERs or fewer in 6 of his last 7 starts overall. Both offense have been solid this year, but this one shapes up as a pitcher's duel.
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Sell the New York Mets--Most Overrated Team in MLB?
Professional handicapper Teddy Covers talks about why the sharps in Vegas are turning on the MLB's New York Mets even though their performance so far this 2015 season seems to indicate they aren't that bad. Teddy points out that even with "stud" players like Matt Harvey and Jon Nies are clouding where the Mets are underperforming--the slash line (team batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage). Pro bettor Steve Fezzik agrees that he is not keen on the Mets and compares the quality of their batters to that of sitcom star and Mets fan Kevin James. So, while the odds may be in their favor, Vegas says these guys are a team to bet against.