Saturday NBA Playoff action and I will have a free pick in game 3 between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Portland Trailblazers, which will take place at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. The game has a start time of 10:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have Portland listed as 3 point favorites, while the total is set at 188.5.
Analysis: The Memphis Grizzlies really limped into the playoffs as they were dealing with many injuries, but they put all that behind them with a couple of easy home wins over Portland. Memphis was a solid road team this year where they have gone 24-17, which includes winning both games played in Portland. Memphis has gone 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games and 10-1 ATS the last 11 games in the series. The Grizzlies have scored just 97.2 ppg on 45.8% shooting overall and 33.4% from long range on the road this year. Defensively they have been solid away from home as they have allowed just 97.0 ppg on 45.9% shooting overall and 36.7% shooting from long range.
The Portland Trailblazers are a beat up team and playing the Memphis Grizzlies has not been the best remedy for them. after losing the two game in Memphis, Portland has now lost 6 games in a row and just seem to be out of gas, especially offensively as they have averaged just 89 ppg in their last 4 games. The Blazers have been a solid team at home this year going 32-9. Portland has gone just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 Conference Quarterfinals games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.The Trailblazers have scored 104.1 ppg on 45.1% shooting overall and 36.8% from long range at home for the year. Defensively they have been solid at home, allowing 95.8 ppg on 44.4% shooting overall and 31.7% shooting from long range.
Pick: I have to look at the Under in this game. The Blazers do play good offense at home, but this team is just too beat up right now to feel that they can put many points on this Memphis defense that is playing awesome right now. The Grizzlies have allowed 94 or less in 9 of their last 10 games and they have allowed just 90.5 pg in their 6 meetings with Portland this year. Just like the games in Memphis, Portland just doesn't have enough offense right now to feel that the game can go over the total.
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