LAS VEGAS -- The Denver Nuggets continue their robust campaign towards their first ever NBA Finals appearance, securing an impressive 3-0 lead in the Western Conference finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. Despite the Lakers' fierce home crowd, the Nuggets showcased relentless resolve, a mark of a championship team, clinching a 119-108 victory in Game 3.
The betting market, before Game 3, anticipated a Lakers' comeback. The Lakers had a flawless Straight Up (SU) and Against the Spread (ATS) record at home in the playoffs, and they opened as 4-point favorites, later bet up to 5.5-point favorites for Game 3. This shift marked an unprecedented instance in documented sports betting history where a team has been favored by more than 5 points in a Game 3 after being 5-point or greater underdogs in the prior Game 2.
A notable track record of home teams who are down 0-2 in a series performing well in the first half of Game 3 – often referred to as the NBA zig-zig-zag theory - saw the betting market install the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites solely for the first half. This edge was wider than they were originally projected to win the whole game by when they opened as 4-point favorites. As per the Pregame.com Game Center, over 60% of the cash and tickets backed the Lakers for Game 3. The Nuggets, now 11-3 SU in the playoffs, paid as high as 2/1 underdogs on the moneyline.
In this decisive game, Jamal Murray led the Nuggets' charge, scoring 37 points, easily surpassing his point prop early in the second quarter and ending the first half with 30 points. Nikola Jokic added 24 points and eight assists. The Nuggets burst out to a 24-10 first quarter lead but watched as the Lakers methodically whittled down their advantage. Their significant lead was trimmed by the Lakers, who took a 1-point lead with under eight minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. However, demonstrating their championship-quality grit, the Nuggets responded with a decisive 13-0 run in the closing moments. Jokic, who had been relatively silent offensively through the first three quarters, scored 15 of his 24 points in the final period. As seen in Game 2, the Nuggets often resorted to the Murray-Jokic two-man pick-and-roll action down the stretch, leading head coach Michael Malone to fondly dub Jokic as "Coach Jokic".
Jokic had previously tied Wilt Chamberlain's 1967 record of recording seven triple-doubles in a single playoff run. Jokic will have another chance to surpass the record on Monday. He is currently priced at -105 to record a triple-double in Game 4 at FanDuel.
The Lakers are undoubtedly in an unenviable situation. History is against them - no team has ever managed to claw back from a 3-0 deficit in an NBA playoff series. In the loss, LeBron James tallied 23 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds, and Anthony Davis added 28 points and 18 rebounds, surpassing his Points Prop of O/U 24.5 prop. However, their efforts weren't enough to counterbalance the Nuggets' well-rounded offensive onslaught. Further complicating matters for the Lakers is their struggle to find consistent scorers beyond James and Davis. Austin Reaves emerged as a notable performer, contributing 23 points, substantially surpassing his 16.5-point prop. Yet, Reaves saw little of the ball in the second half, only attempting four field goals after halftime, knocking down three.
In the game's crucial final phase, the Lakers seemed to abandon their balanced offensive strategy. LeBron James, who managed to sink just two of six shots in the fourth quarter, had more shot attempts in the fourth than Davis and Reaves combined. Davis’ only fourth quarter shots came from lob-attempts from James. Reaves took just one shot in the fourth quarter, knocking down a 30-foot three-pointer, but it was a futile effort as by that point the Lakers were trailing by 14 points with barely a minute left on the clock.
Given their current predicament, the Lakers must contend with daunting odds going into Monday night's Game 4 in Los Angeles. Of the 149 teams that have faced a 3-0 series deficit, none has successfully staged a comeback, with only about 2% (~3 teams) managing to force a Game 7. With these historical statistics against them and a motivated Nuggets team vying for their maiden NBA Finals appearance, the Lakers' resolve will be tested like never before. They must dig deep and rally if they hope to keep their championship dreams alive.
However, the Lakers' challenges extend beyond just the game's score. Their starting lineup - comprised of Davis, James, Jarred Vanderbilt, Reaves, and D'Angelo Russell - isn't producing the desired results. This group helped the Lakers to a 7-5 playoff record, but their overall performance, especially in Game 2, leaves much to be desired. They started both halves with a deficit, accumulating a significant negative score over Russell's 79 minutes and Vanderbilt's 41 minutes of play. It's a glaring issue that must be addressed.
The solution could be benching both Russell and Vanderbilt, with Rui Hachimura and Dennis Schroder stepping into the starting lineup. Despite their current predicament, it's worth highlighting that both Reaves and Hachimura have put themselves in the spotlight for a big payday in restricted free agency this summer.
With the season hanging in the balance, the Lakers needed to dominate in the fourth. However, they fell short. Despite a quick surge from Hachimura, Denver bounced back with threes by Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, and Murray, going on a decisive 13-0 run. The Lakers were unable to retaliate, and a final three-pointer by MPJ sealed their fate. The Lakers' coaching staff, recognizing the imminent loss, benched their main players with a minute to spare. As the Lakers head into Game 4, their offensive strategy and lineup decisions will be crucial determinants of their fate in these playoffs.
Monday’s Game 4 Side & Total:
LA Lakers -3.5, O/U 224.5.
Since 2002, teams down 3 games to none in the NBA Playoffs have an Against the Spread (ATS) record of 34-45-3, including a 5-7-1 ATS record when they are favored. In terms of Straight Up (SU) results, these teams have a record of 28-54, including a 7-6 SU record when they are the favorite.
Game 4 Notable Player Props:
LAL F, LeBron James O/U 25.5 Points:
LeBron has averaged 26.0 points, 9.7 assists, and 7.7 rebounds per game on 43.0 percent shooting from the field when facing a series sweep. His teams in this spot have a 1-2 SU & ATS record.
LAL C, Anthony Davis O/U 26.5 Points
This is the first time this post-season Davis has a higher Points prop than LeBron James. Anthony Davis is averaging 28.8 PPG in odd-numbered games throughout this postseason while averaging only 15.8 PPG in even-numbered games.
DEN G, Jamal Murray O/U 26.5 Points
Bookmakers have raised Murray’s props by as much as 3 points at some books following his dominant performances in Games 2 & 3.
DEN C, Nikola Jokic O/U 26.5 Points
After two games going under his Points Props, bookmakers have lowered Jokic’s props by as much as 2 points.
Odds to Record Triple-Double in Game 4:
Nikola Jokic (DEN) -105
LeBron James (LAL) +410
Jamal Murray (DEN) +6500
Austin Reaves (LAL) +7500
Anthony Davis (LAL) +8500