The second round begins Sunday for the top two seeds left in the Eastern Conference, when the Indiana Pacers travel south to take on the Miami Heat in game 1 . The game is scheduled for a 3:30 pm start time and it will be televised live on ABC. Currently the odds have Miami favored by 8.5 points with the total sitting at 188 points for the contest.
Free Analysis: Indiana has been largely overlooked despite being the No. 3 seed in the East and going 12-3 in April to finish the regular season. The Pacers put on a convincing display in the first round, dropping the first game to the Magic and then controlling the rest of the series. Indiana’s starting frontcourt of C Roy Hibbert, PF David West and SF Danny Granger combined for 48.2 PPG and 27.4 RPG against Orlando, but none of the three was extremely efficient against the Heat this season. Granger scored just 13.3 PPG on 34% FG in the four meetings, far below his 18.7 PPG in the regular season. Hibbert had 10.5 PPG and 8.3 PPG versus Miami this year, but made just 41.9% FG. West shot even worse at 35.7% FG to get his 12.0 PPG against the Heat. SG George Hill is coming off a nice playoff series (14.2 PPG, 43% threes), but Miami held him to 4.5 PPG on 14% FG in two meetings. PG Paul George had 9.4 PPG and 7.0 RPG in the first round, but shot a dismal 2-for-17 from three-point land, well below his strong 39% clip from long range during the regular season. George scored 13.3 PPG in four meetings with the Heat this year. Indiana has been an outstanding road team at 21-14 (18-17 ATS). This includes seven straight road wins (5-2 ATS) since losing at San Antonio on the last day of March. The Miami Heat had little trouble dispatching the New York Knicks in five games in round one, leaning on newly-crowned MVP LeBron James and a strong team defensive effort. Winning in Miami has been quite a difficult task for opposing NBA teams. The Heat are 31-5 (20-15-1 ATS) at AmericanAirlines Arena, outscoring these visitors 100.6 to 89.1 PPG and outshooting them 48% to 43% FG. Newly-named league MVP SF LeBron James started off his 2012 postseason with a bang, averaging 27.8 PPG (48% FG), 6.2 RPG, 5.6 APG and 2.2 SPG in the five-game series win over New York. He also performed at a high level versus Indiana this year, averaging 26.8 PPG (47% FG), 8.5 RPG, 6.5 APG and 2.8 SPG. SG Dwyane Wade’s production was nearly parallel with James, as Wade lit up the Knicks for 21.0 PPG (51% FG), 4.0 APG and 2.8 SPG. Wade’s numbers against the Pacers this season were also stellar: 22.7 PPG (52% FG), 5.3 APG, 5.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG. PF Chris Bosh had an up-and-down series against the Knicks, scoring 9, 21, 9, 17 and 19 points. His numbers versus Indiana this season were nothing to write home about either at 15.5 PPG (46% FG) and 5.3 RPG. Miami has won nine of the 11 meetings (7-4 ATS), with the Pacers, over the past three seasons with seven of those nine victories coming by at least seven points.
Free Pick: I like the Over in this one. 3 of the 4 meetings this year and 5 orf their last 6 overall have hit at least 195 points. Just 12 of Miami's 36 home games have gone over the total this year, yet their home games have averaged 189.7 ppg. Miami has averaged 100.6 ppg at home on the year, but in their 3 home playoff games they have upped that to an average of 103.3 ppg. The Pacers did allow just 83.5 ppg in their 1st round series, but that was vs a depleted Orlando team that just didn't have enough offense to compete. Prior to that series the Pacers did allow 100.8 ppg in their last 5 regular season games. Miami plays great defense at home (89.1 ppg), but did allow NY 94 points in each of their last 2 homes games in round 1. Indiana is not a great offensive team, but they have averaged 95.9 ppg on the road this year, while in their last 4 of round 1 they put up 99 ppg. Lokk for the low 90's form the Pacers here, while Miami should get right around 100.
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