(Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Mid-Season Disappointments and Injuries
As we approach the mid-point of the 2023 season, the Houston Astros find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Once the top dogs of their division, they now sit three and a half games behind the Texas Rangers, scrambling for the final Wildcard spot. A confluence of injuries, slumping performances, and aggressive competition has made for a rocky road thus far, and the Astros have been forced to reevaluate their strategy.
After Vegas installed Houston as -185 favorites in the AL West to start the season, the Astros are now ‘Even Money’ or +100 to win their third consecutive division title. Still the favorites, the division-leading Texas Rangers at +150 have inched closer and closer by the day.
This season has certainly not unfolded as many anticipated for the Astros, with disappointments pervading both their pitching and batting rosters. Injuries to key players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Yordan Alvarez, and Michael Brantley have not only tested the depth of the squad but also exposed gaps that urgently need addressing. McCullers, unfortunately, won't return until 2024 due to a surgery to repair his right flexor tendon and remove a bone spur. These gaps, along with the occasional slumps of players like Jose Abreu, have led to an overall decline in the team's performance metrics.
The team is currently ranked 17th in batting average, 20th in on base percentage, 19th in OPS, 23rd in walks, 16th in hits, and 15th in HRs. These are disappointing stats for a team that has been a perennial offensive juggernaut in the league. But it's not all doom and gloom, as Houston has still managed to lead the MLB in ERA and earned runs surrendered, showing resilience and depth in their rotation and bullpen despite the absences.
Trade Prospects: Looking Towards a Stronger Future
So, what's next for the Astros? The MLB trade deadline looms, and General Manager Dana Brown has spoken at length about their pursuit of a versatile left-handed bat. A juicy rumor doing the rounds is the potential acquisition of 2019 National League MVP Cody Bellinger from the Chicago Cubs. This move could significantly bolster the Astros' lineup, as Bellinger's prowess in both the outfield and first base, coupled with his remarkable .271/.337/.493 slash line, would help cover the Astros' current vulnerabilities.
However, with Bellinger's rebound season and his one-year $17.5 million deal, the Astros will need to be prepared for a competitive trade market. While his status as a potential rental may keep the cost of acquisition down in terms of prospect returns, his sought-after skill set will likely see him as one of the hottest commodities come the deadline.
Betting on Astros: Analyzing the Shift in Odds and Strategies
Now, let's shift our gaze from the diamond to the betting realm. The Astros opened the season as the #1 World Series favorites with +600 odds, but they've since slipped to the fourth spot with +700, trailing the surging Atlanta Braves (+450), the LA Dodgers (+550), and the Tampa Bay Rays (+550). Vegas's initial prediction of an Over/Under (O/U) 95.5 season win total for the Astros has also seen a slight dip, currently sitting at O/U 93.5. This change in betting odds is likely a reflection of the Astros' somewhat disappointing performance this season, failing to meet some of the high expectations.
To enrich the conversation about daily betting on the Astros, let's introduce a comparison with other Major League Baseball (MLB) teams.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been the most unsuccessful team to bet on in the 2023 season, resulting in a loss of -27 Units for their dedicated followers, who've placed bets game after game. On the other hand, the Baltimore Orioles have added a healthy +18 Units to the purses of their daily backers, the best in the major leagues. The Orioles have picked up an incredible +43 Units over the last two seasons for their backers – in other words, a $100 bettor who bet on Baltimore every single game would have profited over $4,300 since last April.
Between 2017 and 2022, fans who bet daily on the Astros saw an increase of +31 Units, including a handsome +23 Units just last season. But this year, the table has turned, with regular Astros bettors down -1.5 Units. The Astros have fallen back to the pack for bettors – as their World Series ring brings with it a premium for Dusty Baker’s squad.
According to Fangraphs, the Astros are projected to finish with 89 wins, notably 4.5 games under their current Vegas win total. This is a prime example of the natural tension between public sentiment and rigorous analytics, especially when it comes to popular teams like the Astros. In contrast, Vegas often underestimates less popular teams like the Athletics, setting their Over/Under far lower than what the projections indicate.
For instance, as of Tuesday, June 13th, Fangraphs forecasted the Athletics to conclude their season with 59 wins, while Vegas's Over/Under rests at a modest 49. This stark 10-game gap between the Vegas Over/Under and the Fangraphs projection reveals that bettors are reluctant to risk their money on the league's lowest-ranking team - even when the numbers show potential value.
So, how should you approach your Astros bets moving forward? Well, one could argue that their current odds offer value. They are the defending champions, and they possess a combination of experience and talent that could turn their season around, especially if they secure a valuable trade asset like Bellinger. Yet, with a record that has yet to reflect their potential and projections that seem to hedge against the public sentiment, it would be prudent to approach with a careful strategy.
As we move towards the business end of the season, it's clear that the Astros will need to adapt and respond if they are to regain their dominant form. Whether it's through savvy trade deals, sparking their current lineup back into form, or adjusting their tactics to accommodate their missing pieces, the Astros still have time to redirect their 2023 trajectory. The big question is: Will they?
For now, all eyes remain on the team's management to navigate these troubled waters, and as always, we'll be watching the betting odds closely to spot the opportunities and pitfalls that come with every pitch, swing, and play.
Statistics mentioned in this article:
AL West Odds as of Wednesday June 14th:
HOU Astros +100
Texas Rangers +150
LA Angels +600
SEA Mariners +1300
Top 5 ‘Bet On’ MLB Teams through Wednesday, June 14th:
1 BAL Orioles +$1,813
2 ARI Diamondbacks +$1,693
3 TB Rays +$1,635
4 TEX Rangers +$1,279
5 MIA Marlins, +$814
(Assumes $100 bet placed on the Moneyline for given team each game this season)
Top 5 ‘Bet Against’ MLB Teams through Wednesday, June 14th:
1 STL Cardinals, -$2,682
2 KC Royals, $-2,652
3 OAK Athletics, $-1,717 (though better recently!)
4 NY Mets $-1,650
5 SD Padres $-1,400
(Assumes $100 bet placed on the Moneyline for given team each game this season)
MLB World Series Odds Progression
