Saturday NBA Playoff action and I will have a free pick in game 3 between the Golden State Warriors and the New Orleans Pelicans, which will take place at the Smoothie King Center in Louisiana. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have Golden State listed as 7 point favorites, while the total is set at 205.
Analysis: The Golden State Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this year, but they really played lackluster ball in their two non-covering wins over the Pelicans at home and then followed that up by trailing big in New Orleans, before fighting back and winning the game in OT. Overall this year Golden State has now gone 29-13 on the road SU. Golden State has gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Conference Quarterfinals games, but just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. The Warriors have scored 106.6 ppg on 46.0% shooting overall and 38.1% from long range on the road this year. Defensively they have struggled away from home as they have allowed 101.0 ppg on 42.8% shooting overall and 33.4% shooting from long range.
The New Orleans Pelicans played well to get into the playoffs and they have continued to play well vs the Warriors, as their three losses have been by 7 and 10 points and 4 points, with the Pelicans covering all 3 games. The Pelicans have been a solid team at home this year going 28-13. New Orleans has gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. the Pacific Division and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Pelicans have scored 101.7 ppg on 46.7% shooting overall and 37.8% from long range at home for the year. Defensively they have been solid at home, allowing 97.6 ppg on 45.8% shooting overall and 33.4% shooting from long range.
Pick: I have to feel that the Pelicans are demoralized after letting one get away last night. They are now in a 3-0 hole and just may come out very flat for this one. The Warriors should show up with their best game as the look to close out the series. This team was down big n Thursday and then we saw their best basketball. I expect that we will see that kind of ball played through the whole game here. I just cannot see the pelicans getting up for this one and I look for the Warriors to bring their best and walk away with at least a 10 point win here. The Pelicans are done here.
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