The Western Conference Finals continue on Saturday night and I will have a free pick in Game 4 between the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets, which will take place at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game has a start time of 8:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on TNT. Current Vegas betting odds have the Warriors listed as 1 point favorites, while the total is set at 215.5.
Analysis: The Golden state Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this year and they were really supposed to have an easy time at home vs the Rockets the last 2 games, but it just didn't pan out that way as the Warriors really escaped with their lives in the two games. Golden State has gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, but just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win. Warriors have scored 106.5 ppg on 46.0% shooting overall and 38.3% from long range on the road this year. Defensively they have been decent on the road as they have allowed 100.8 ppg on 42.9% shooting overall and 32.7% shooting from long range.
The Houston Rockets are really playing with heart and passion and it has made life very difficult for the team with the best record in the NBA. The Rockets lost a 4 games to the warriors in the regular season by DD, but have taken them to the wire in each of the first 2 games of this series, losing by just 4 and 1 point. Houston has gone 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a S.U. loss. The Rockets have scored 104.8 ppg on 44.4% shooting overall and 35.1% from long range at home for the year. Defensively they have been decent at home as they have allowed 98.9 ppg on 45.8% shooting overall and 29.1% shooting from long range.
Pick: I will be going with the Under in this game. Both games of this series has played to the under and I feel the deeper we go they will continue to play that way. The Rockets are hobbled, especially with Dwight Howard and I just can't see them trying to run as much here. They don't have a shot at staying with the Warriors if they do. The Warriors shot 53% in their last game, but this has not been a good shooting Warriors team in the playoffs and Houston has allowed under 30% from long range at home this year, which is the best mark in the league. I expect no more than 210 points in this one.
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