Friday night in the NBA I will have a free pick in the game between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers, which will take place at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game has a start time of 7:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised locally. Current Vegas betting odds have the Cavaliers listed as 6 point favorites, while the total is set at 206.
Analysis: The Boston Celtics have been playing solid ball of late as they have won back-to-back road games vs Detroit and Toronto, which gives them 4 wins in their last 5 games overall. The Celtics are 36-42 on the year and in a tie with Brooklyn for the 8th playoff spot in the East. Boston has gone 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, but just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland. The Celtics have been an average offensive team this year, ranking 12th in scoring (101.2 ppg), 22nd in shooting, 27th in 3 point shooting and 15th in FT shooting. Defensively the Spurs have not been good at all this year, ranking 25th in points allowed (101.8 ppg), 18th in defensive FG% and 7th in 3 point defense.
So much for all the talk about the Cavs struggling this year as they have shown that they are clearly the best team in the East and maybe in the NBA overall. Since January 15th the Cavs have gone 32-7 with all 7 losses coming on the road. For the year Cleveland is 51-27 overall, including 29-9 at home and they have just wrapped up the Central Division. The Cavs have gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Cavaliers have been a good offensive team this year, ranking 6th in scoring (103.4 ppg), 7th in shooting, 7th in 3 point shooting and 16th in FT shooting. Defensively the Cavaliers have been solid this year, ranking 12th in points allowed (98.3 ppg), 19th in defensive FG% and 8th in 3 point defense.
Pick: Really like the Under here. Lebron will be given the night off and that is a big bulk of the Cavs scoring. The defense for Cleveland has been outstanding of late as they have allowed just 92.0 ppg in their last 9 games, plus they have allowed just 95.6 ppg at home for the year. Boston does score 101.3 ppg on the road, but I find it hard for them to hit that mark in this one. Their defense is weak, but Cleveland should take a much more conservative approach in this one, especially without Lebron in there. 206 is just too high in a game where neither team may hit 100 points.
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