Thursday college football and we will see the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. The game has a start time of 8:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have Blue Devils listed as 5.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 64.  

Analysis: The North Carolina Tar Heels have not had a very good year, as they come in at just 5-5 overall and 3-3 in the ACC after being picked by many to face Florida State in the ACC title game. The Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win, but also 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Heels have been solid on offense this year, ranking 51st in total yards, 21st in passing, 94th in rushing and 24th in scoring (35.9 ppg). On defense they just don't play any, as they come in ranked 125th in yards allowed, 116th vs the pass, 115th vs the run and 125th in points allowed (41.2 ppg).

The Duke Blue Devils come in off a tough 17-16 home loss to Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils are still 8-2 on the year and 4-2 in the ACC, which puts them a full game behind Georgia Tech in the ACC's Coastal Division. Duke is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November, plus 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass. The Duke offense has been rather average this year, ranking 71st in total yards, 88th in passing, 41st in rushing and 46th in scoring (32.9 ppg). The Duke defense has been very good this year, ranking 66th in yards allowed, 21st vs the pass, 98th vs the run and 11th in points allowed (18.1 ppg). 

Pick: Going to go with the Tar Heels in this one. Duke is having a solid year at 8-2, but they have not been all that impressive of late as lost at home last week to a struggling Va Tech team and 3 of their 4 ACC wins have come by a TD or less. Duke has a solid defense, but this is a very strong Carolina offense that has been able to score on everyone this year. We also note that Duke has been outgained by 81.8 ypg in conference play. This is a rivalry game and 3 of the last 4 has been decided by 5 points or less. I expect the same in this one as the Heels are playing a bit better ball than Duke right now.  

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