Thursday college basketball and we will see the Gonzaga Bulldogs travel to the Leavey Center to take on the Santa Clara Broncos. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have Gonzaga listed as 16 point favorites, while the total is set at 134.
Analysis: The Gonzaga Bulldogs continue to be highly ranked as they come in at #3 in the nation with a 22-1 record on the year, which includes a perfect 10-0 record in the WCC and a 6-1 mark on the road. Gonzaga has gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, but just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Bulldogs have been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 9th in scoring (80.9 ppg), 1st in shooting (52.8%), 18th in 3 point shooting (40.0%) and 133rd in FT shooting (70.0%). Defensively the Zags have been solid, ranking 42nd in points allowed (60.2 ppg), 14th in defensive FG% (37.6%) and 36th in 3 point defense (30.1%).
The Santa Clara Broncos come in off tough BB road losses to BYU and San Diego. The losses now have them sitting at 11-12 overall, including 5-6 in the WCC and 8-3 at home. Santa Clara has gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 6-1 ATS the last 7 at home in the series, but just 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games overall. The Broncos have been a very poor offensive team this year, ranking 296th in scoring (62.3 ppg), 257th in shooting (41.8%), 123rd in 3 point shooting (35.5%) and 48th in FT shooting (72.8%). The defense for this team has been rather average, ranking 173rd in points allowed (66.2 ppg), 279th in defensive FG% (44.9%) and 318th in 3 point defense (37.9%).
Pick: Let's go with the under in this one. We know that Gonzaga can score, but Santa Clara cannot and the Zags have played ver good defense this year. Gonzaga really has clamped it down at the defensive end of the floor, where they have allowed just 54.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Now they take on a Santa Clara team that slows it down on offense and has averaged just 61.5 ppg in their last 4 games and just 59.6 ppg in their 11 WCC games so far. How bad is this offense? Well earlier in the year they were able to muster just 46 points vs a very bad BYU defensive team at home and then in their last game they were able to score just 57 at BYU. The Zags are a much better defensive team than BYU is. Gonzaga does average 76.3 ppg on the road, but the Broncos have played solid defense of late, allowing just 65.5 ppg in their last 6 games overall and just 60.7 ppg in their last 6 games at home. I just don't see the Broncos coming up with enough points to push this one over the total. 70-54 sounds about right here.
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