Tuesday night college basketball and we will see the Mississippi Rebels travel to the Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky to take on the Kentucky Wildcats. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on the SEC Network. Current Vegas betting odds have Kentucky listed as 22 point favorites, while the total is set at 131.5.
Analysis: The Mississippi Rebels come in having gone 4-3 in their last 7 games, which now puts their record at 9-4 overall for the year and includes a 2-1 mark in true road games. Mississippi is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southeastern. The Rebels have a been decent offensive squad this year, ranking 65th in scoring (73.5 ppg), 175th in shooting (43.8%), 151st in 3 point shooting (34.8%) and 1st in FT shooting (78.4%). The defense for this team has been rather average, ranking 156th in points allowed (64.9 ppg), 20th in defensive FG% (37.2%) and 170th in 3 point defense (33.1%).
The Kentucky Wildcats come in as the top ranked team in the nation. The Cats come in with a perfect 13-0 record and have outscore their opponents by 27.5 ppg so far. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but the host is 1-4 ATS the last 5 in the series. Kentucky has been a good offensive team this year, ranking 41st in scoring (75.3 ppg), 47th in shooting (47.2%), 233rd in 3 point shooting (32.1%) and 243rd in FT shooting (66.2%). Defensively the Cats have been the best in the nation, ranking 1st in points allowed (47.8 ppg), 1st in defensive FG% (29.6%) and 7th in 3 point defense (26.7%).
Pick: I am going to look Under in this game. With the way the Cats have slowed it down on offense and with the way that they have played defense this year it will be very hard for many of their games to be played in the 130s or higher. Granted the Cats have scored 76.6 pg at home, but still their home games have averaged just 125.4 ppg thanks to the fact that they have allowed just 48.8 ppg on 31.5% shooting at home this year. We also note that the Cats are poor from long range and the charity stripe, so don't expect extra points from those two areas. Mississippi has been solid on offense this year, but they have not faced a defense like this, while their own defense has allowed just 64.9 ppg on 37.2% shooting this year. Kentucky has scored 80+ points in 3 of their last 5 games, but because of their defense those 5 games have still averaged just 124.4 ppg. This one probably won't hit 125 points.
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