Tuesday night college basketball and we will see the Miami Hurricanes travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas betting odds have Duke listed as 15 point favorites, while the total is set at 141.5.
Analysis: The Miami Hurricanes were once a ranked team this year, but that is no longer the case as they have now lost 4 of their last 7 games, which includes home losses to Eastern Kentucky and Wisc- Green Bay. Miami is now 11-4 on the year and 1-1 in the ACC. The Canes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Miami has been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 134th in scoring (69.8 ppg), 114th in shooting (44.7%), 89th in 3 point shooting (36.3%) and 101st in FT shooting (70.9%). The defense for this team has been solid, ranking 65th in points allowed (61.4 ppg), 95th in defensive FG% (40.5%) and 166th in 3 point defense (33.1%).
The Duke Blue Devils are off a shocking road loss to the NC State Wolfpack. Not so much that the lost the game but they were 9 point favorites in the game and lost by 12 points. The loss was the first of the year for Duke, which is now 14-1 overall and 2-1 in the ACC. Duke is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, but 0-6-1 ATS the last 7 in the series. Duke has been a strong offensive team this year, ranking 8th in scoring (83.8 ppg), 5th in shooting (50.7%), 54th in 3 point shooting (37.8%) and 117th in FT shooting (70.6%). Defensively the Blue Devils have been a decent group, ranking 109th in points allowed (62.7 ppg), 167th in defensive FG% (42.2%) and 33rd in 3 point defense (28.9%).
Pick: Going with the under in this game. Duke is off a bad loss to NC tate state and usually when a loss like that happens teams tend to turn to the defensive end of the floor a bit more. Duke did allow 87 points to NC State, so I really look for them to clamp it down on the defensive end of the floor. Duke does allow just 59.8 ppg at home and Miami comes in struggling on offense averaging just 62.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Miami is not an up tempo offensive team and will look to slow the pace here, plus they have also played solid defense so far this year, allowing just 61.4 ppg overall, including just 66.7 ppg in their last 5 games. This has been an Over series in the past, but I just don't expect it here. the teams combined for just 112 points last year and I can't see this one topping 135, especially with a much more concerted effort on the defensive end of the floor by Duke.
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