Today the East Carolina Pirates will take on the SMU Mustangs in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament which will take place at the XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut. The game has a start time of 12:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas betting odds have the Mustangs listed as 14.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 126.5. 

Analysis:  The East Carolina Pirates come in having won just 3 of their last 8 games and are currently 14-18 on the year, but they have extended their season for at least one more day after beating Central Florida 81-80 in OT in the opening round of the AAC tourney yesterday. The Pirates have gone 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Pirates have not been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 265th in scoring (64.0 ppg), 245th in shooting (42.2%), 156th in 3 point shooting (34.7%) and 236th in FT shooting (67.7%). Defensively the Pirates have been rather average this year, ranking 147th in points allowed (65.7 ppg), 249th in defensive FG% (44.4%) and 44th in 3 point defense (31.3%). 

The SMU Mustangs went into the last game of the regular season tied with Tulsa atop the AAC standings, but a 67-62 win over the Golden Hurricane gave them the regular season title and the top seed in the ACC Tournament. SMU is now 24-6 overall and have gone 15-3 vs AAC competition this year. SMU has gone 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, but just 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games. The Mustangs have been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 119th in scoring (69.5 ppg), 17th in shooting (48.4%), 90th in 3 point shooting (36.3%) and 120th in FT shooting (70.6%). The defense for this team has been very good this year, ranking 24th in points allowed (59.8 ppg), 9th in defensive FG% (38.2%) and 79th in 3 point defense (32.4%).  

Pick: Going with the Under here. ECU is not a good offensive team this year and were held to just 54 point in the earlier meeting with the Mustangs. The Pirates have averaged just 56.2 ppg away from home and that number isn't likely to improve much vs this tough SMU defense. The Mustangs are not a strong offensive team and they slow the game down when they have the ball and I just don't see them going crazy here, especially once they have the big lead and knowing they they still have to play two more days in a row. SMU should call he dogs off early and just allow their defense to finish this one. 

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