Thursday college basketball and we will see the Cincinnati Bearcats travel to Moody Coliseum to take on the SMU Mustangs. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have SMU listed as 6.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 116.
Analysis: The Cincinnati Bearcats went into ECU over the weekend as 10.5 point favorites, but came away with a 50-46 loss. The Bearcats have still won 4 of their last 5 games, which has them at 15-6 on the year, including 6-3 in the AAC and 2-4 in their true road games. The Bearcats have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, but just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games. Cincinnati has not been a good offensive team this year, ranking 295th in scoring (62.4 ppg), 148th in shooting (44.0%), 287th in 3 point shooting (31.0%) and 130th in FT shooting (70.1%). Defensively the Bearcats have been excellent as the come in ranked 5th in points allowed (54.5 ppg), 22nd in defensive FG% (38.1%) and 78th in 3 point defense (31.6%).
The SMU Mustangs come in on a serious roll as they have won 16 of their last 17 games, including heir last 8 in row. Their lone loss over that stretch was a 56-50 road loss to these same Bearcats. For the year SMU is now 18-4 overall, including 9-1 in the AAC. SMU has gone 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 vs. the AAC, but just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games. SMU has been a decent offensive squad this year, ranking 112th in scoring (70.1 ppg), 11th in shooting (49.1%), 78th in 3 point shooting (36.8%) and 73rd in FT shooting (72.0%). The defense for this team has been very good, ranking 22nd in points allowed (58.8 ppg), 12th in defensive FG% (37.5%) and 61st in 3 point defense (31.1%).
Pick: This game features two of the better defensive teams in the nation in what should be a very slow paced game and yes that means a low scoring game, just like the first one this year that put up just 106 points. SMU does have some offensive punch, but tonight it will not be easy vs a Cincinnati team that has allowed just 52.2 ppg in their last 5 games and 56.4 ppg on the road this year. Cincinnati has looked a bit better on offense of late as they have averaged 64.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but we not that three of those games were at home and in the two road games over that stretch they scored just 46 and 56 points. For the year the Bearcats have averaged just 56.5 ppg on the road, including just 52 ppg in their 4 AAC road games thus far. Now this bad offense must try and crack an SMU defense that has allowed 59 points or less in 14 of their last 15 Non-OT games, while giving up just 54.7 ppg in their last 6 games overall. The Under is 20-8 in Cincinnati's last 28 road games and 12-5 in SMU's last 17 vs the AAC. Both trends should continue and we just may see an identical 56-50 score like the first time.
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