College Football Week 1 continues tonight and we will see the UAB Blazers travel to Troy, Alabama to take on the Troy Trojans. The start time is 7:00 pm (Eastern) and the game will be televised on ESPN3. Current Odds have Troy listed as 3.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 63.
Analysis: The UAB Blazer had a rough year in the standings in 2012, but they did show progress on the field, by gaining 55 ypg more than 2011, while allowing 58 ypg less than their previous year. Now they have 16 starters back and with some weaker Sun Belt teams coming in, UAB could actually be in the hunt for some form of minor bowl invite in 2013. UAB can't really be faulted for its offensive production, especially through the air, last season. The Blazers averaged 308.8 yards per game in passing which was among the top 20 totals in the country. UAB returns 8 on offense, including both starting QB's that saw some action. The WR corp is solid despite losing 2 of their top 3 from last year, as they do have 6 of their top 8 pass catchers back overall, including last years leading receiver Jackie Williams. The UAB defense had it's struggles last year, allowing 37.5 ppg and 427 ypg. It was equally bad vs the run (183 ypg allowed) as the pass (245 ypg allowed). The Blazers have lost a big producer at linebacker in Marvin Burdette (157 tackles), but both Jake Ganus (63 tackles) and Patrick Bastien (33 tackles) return with starting experience. All in all 8 starters return to the defense and 28 of 35 lettermen from last year, so they should be an improved group on this side of the ball.
The Trojans, finished 2012 at 5-7. Still that was a 2 win improvement from the previous year when the team went 3-9, its worst mark as an FBS program. The Troy offense will put up plenty of points, with Corey Robinson back after throwing for 3121 yards and 12 INT's last year. This is his 4th year and he is already the Sun Belt’s all-time leader in completions and yardage. The Trojans lost their top 3 Rbs, including a 1000 yard back and they also lost a 1000 yard receiver. The receiving corp overall lost 168 receptions from a year ago, but still they have some decent skill players coming back, so the dropoff may not be all that drastic. Last year the Trojans allowed 444 ypg and 30.5 ppg, and they bring just 5 starters back to that unit. This defense was bad vs both the run (185 ypg) and vs the pass (258 ypg) and it will take plenty of work to improve on those numbers. The DL looks like it will be the strength of the defense with Tyler Roberts leading the way with 4.5 TFL and 2 sacks last year, but the rest of the defense is pretty weak.
Pick: Im looking at the over in this game. Both of these offenses should but up plenty of points this year, while the defenses will struggle. This gme has the feel of an up and down the field shootout. Look for nearly 70 points to be scored here.
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