The Wembayama Factor
Congratulations to San Antonio Spurs for winning the biggest prize of the 2022-2023 NBA Season (arguably second behind the 2023 NBA Championship) – the rights to French sensation Victor Wembayama!
This year's lottery was particularly exciting due to one name: Victor Wembayama. The betting odds reflect the market’s certainty of Wembayama going #1 Overall. To win $100 on a bet that Wembayama will be the first name called during the 2023 NBA Draft on June 22, you'd have to risk a staggering $20,000.
Why is the market so confident whoever won the lottery would want the Frenchman? As Adrian Wojnarowski stated Tuesday, "This is the most highly anticipated player to ever enter the NBA... maybe the greatest prospect in the history of team sports."
The 19-year-old, 7-foot-5 French prospect has been captivating fans and analysts alike. Playing for the French club Metropolitans 92, Wembayama has shown off his vast skill set, serving as a menace at the rim with his 8-foot wingspan, creating his shot off the dribble, running the fast break, and shooting step-back 3s.
Despite the looming draft, Wembayama has no plans of slowing down. He is slated to play through at least May with Metropolitans 92, proving his commitment and resilience. His potential is so immense that whichever team wins the right to draft him isn't just getting his talent, but also someone with a clear vision for his budding career.
While it was a rough season for San Antonio Spurs you can bet their GM is happy that his team had a 14.0% of this happening on lottery night.
Projecting Rookie of the Year Odds: The Wembayama, Holmgren, and Henderson in the Picture
Looking ahead to the 2023-2024 NBA Rookie of the Year odds, it's interesting to note how Paulo Banchero's odds improved drastically from +300 to +175 after fellow rookie Chet Holmgren was injured last summer before his rookie season began. Holmgren will be available to vie for the Rookie of the Year title alongside Wembayama, and other top prospects including Scooter Henderson in the coming season.
Before placing bets on Wembayama, it's crucial to understand the challenge of transitioning to the NBA. Consider the case of a player like Blake Griffin, who effectively used his first year in the NBA for training and development, resulting in an exceptional rookie campaign and the Rookie of the Year trophy. Similarly, Joel Embiid finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting in 2016-2017 after essentially redshirting his first year.
Could we see a similar trajectory for Chet Holmgren? And how will Wembayama's immense potential translate in his rookie year? As bettors, these are the questions to consider and perhaps revisit after we know which team the Spurs won tonight’s NBA lottery.