Golden State Warriors have made a significant move in this off-season, adding veteran All-Star point guard Chris Paul to their roster, a move that didn't go unnoticed in the betting market. This acquisition marks an intriguing shift for the Warriors, a team that has clinched four championships in the last decade.
The Trade (per NBA.com)
Warriors receive:
Chris Paul
Wizards receive:
Jordan Poole
Ryan Rollins
2030 first-round pick (protected)
2027 second-round pick
Warriors Side: Chris Paul off the bench?
Chris Paul, with an illustrious career defined by intense playoff battles and a significant number of personal achievements, now finds himself alongside the Warriors, the very team he battled so intensely over the past 10 years. The 38-year-old point guard comes with an average of 13.9 points and 8.9 assists per game last season, a testament to the formidable skill set he brings to the table.
When reports emerged, that Chris Paul would not be returning to the Suns for the 2023-2024 season, BetOnline swiftly responded by establishing special odds on his potential next team. These odds, set on June 9th, listed the Los Angeles Lakers as favorites with a +275 betting line, teasing the tantalizing prospect of Paul joining forces with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Dallas Mavericks were next at +400 odds, projecting Paul as a perfect addition to their rising star, Luka Doncic. However, defying expectations, it was the Golden State Warriors - who were initially listed at longer 12/1 odds - who eventually clinched the deal, incorporating Paul's seasoned expertise into their roster.
How Paul fits into that roster is an open question. While some of imagined a new version of the small-ball death lineup with Paul, Curry & Thompson in the backcourt and Andrew Wiggins & Draymond Green in the frontcourt, others have speculated that Paul might play a larger role in Golden State's second unit.
Three-time Sixth Man of the Year winner Jamal Crawford has publicly advocated for bringing Paul off the bench, reasoning that Paul's vast experience and basketball acumen could significantly elevate the potential of the Warriors' bench. During his appearance on The Dan Patrick Show, Crawford envisioned a scenario where Paul, rather than starting, would come off the bench early, returning in the second quarter to orchestrate the team's play with the second unit. He argued that this strategy could provide a two-fold advantage for the Warriors by allowing them to preserve Paul's health and stamina while leveraging his high basketball IQ to boost the performance of the second-unit players.
Similarly, Hall of Famer Paul Pierce echoed Crawford's sentiment on his podcast, stating that while he couldn't see Paul as the starting point guard for a championship contender due to his age, he believed Paul could bring immense value as a backup. Pierce envisioned Paul contributing 10 to 12 points and eight assists off the bench, providing a solid performance while preserving his longevity against the newer generation of guards.
One reason why the Warriors may hope to revitalize their second unit is the terrible track record Golden State had this season when their starting Point-Guard Steph Curry was out of the game. In their most recent playoff run, which saw them bounced in the second round by the Lakers, the Warriors had a +3.6 Net Rating with Curry on the floor. Compare that to an eye-popping -16.1 Net Rating in the 254 possessions the Warriors played with Curry on the bench in the 2023 Playoffs, and the Warriors need to make a dramatic change becomes clearer.
Wizards Side: Jordan Poole Revenge Tour?
As part of the exchange deal for Chris Paul, the Golden State Warriors let go of their young guard, Jordan Poole. Despite his pivotal role in their 2022 NBA title run, Poole was traded, along with future draft assets, to the Washington Wizards. The deal was sealed just hours before the 2023 NBA Draft.
Jordan Poole's rollercoaster journey through the NBA playoffs was undoubtedly a factor in this decision. After an exhilarating start to his playoff career, shooting an impressive 55% and averaging 21.0 points per game in a first-round series win over the Denver Nuggets, Poole seemed poised to establish himself as a critical player for the Warriors.
However, Poole's performance trajectory took a downturn in the subsequent playoff series. His scoring declined in each successive series, reaching a low point in a series against the Lakers to end this year’s playoffs run for Golden State. Despite high expectations, Poole faltered, with a disheartening shooting average of 35% and a scoring average of a mere 8 points per game. His overall performance in the 2023 playoffs was disappointing, with a shooting percentage below 35% and scoring only 10 PPG - less than half of his debut performance
As acclaimed sports commentator Bruce Jenkins puts it, the Warriors didn't just trade Jordan Poole, they banished him. Currently, the Wizards' roster is experiencing a period of upheaval. With the recent departures of high-scoring players such as Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyle Kuzma, the team is currently a shadow of its former self. Amidst these circumstances, Jordan Poole, with his ability to light up the court with his electrifying presence and long-range shooting skills, might provide some hope for the beleaguered team. Moreover, Poole's tenure at the Wizards might provide the opportunity for him to develop and hone his skills as a team’s #1 option. This new chapter of his career, though significantly different from his tenure with the Warriors, promises an exciting narrative in the upcoming NBA season.
Effect on the Vegas Futures Market
While this shift is substantial for both teams involved, its reflection in the betting market offers a different perspective. According to consensus odds from Pregame.com, the odds for the Golden State Warriors to win the championship remain unchanged at 13/1.
On the other hand, the Westgate in Nevada showed more sensitivity to the Warriors' roster shift. Their odds for the Warriors moved from 18/1 at the start of the draft day to 10/1 immediately after the draft. However, they later adjusted back to 12/1 post-draft, suggesting that while they see the potential for an impact from the Paul addition, it's not expected to drastically alter the Warriors' trajectory.
Westgate might have upgraded the Warriors' odds, anticipating that this significant move signals Golden State's intent to make further additions that bolster their title chances. Golden State has made a significant financial and future capital investment in Chris Paul, including taking on his contract with one guaranteed year remaining at $30M. This strategic decision, which involved swapping one highly paid guard for another with a shorter time horizon, clearly shows that the Warriors are 'all in' for this season.
The Washington Wizards, now bolstered by Poole, remained at long-shot odds of 500/1, according to Pregame.com's consensus.
BetOnline Specials Markets Emerge After Trade
Betting markets have also set the season player props for both Chris Paul and Jordan Poole. BetOnline sets the Over/Under for Paul's points per game (PPG) for the next season at 11.5, at odds of -115 for both over and under. This suggests that the market expects Paul, who has thrived in slower-paced, half-court pick-and-roll offenses, to adapt to the Warriors' fast-paced motion offense.
As for Jordan Poole, his PPG Over/Under is set significantly higher at 24.5, again with -115 odds on both sides. Despite his regression in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, Poole's move to the Wizards, a team in full rebuild mode, could provide him with ample opportunity to improve upon his 20.4 points average from the 2022-23 season.
In conclusion, this trade signifies a notable shift in strategy for the Golden State Warriors. They are banking on the veteran leadership of Chris Paul to augment their proven stars. On the other hand, the Wizards seem to be investing in younger talent and draft assets for their rebuild. The betting markets have acknowledged these changes but remain prudent, with only minimal adjustments to the teams' championship odds. We do know the Warriors are investing heavily for at least one more shot at a title run with their dynastic core. Will it work? How might it look? These are among the fascinating questions every NBA fan and bettor will be looking forward to at the start of the next NBA season.
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Related: Shifting Sands: Celtics-Porzingis Deal Boosts Boston's Championship Chances, According to Vegas; Grizzlies Get Smart, Unpacking the Suns-Wizards Trade and Its Impact on the NBA Vegas Betting Market,
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