Monday college basketball and we will see the Virginia Cavilers travel to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas betting odds have Virginia listed as 1 point favorites, while the total is set at 128.
Analysis: The Virginia Cavaliers come in as ranked in the top 5 in the nation, but they are off their first loss of the year. Duke Beat them at home on Saturday by a score of 69-63 which dropped them to 19-1 on the year and 7-1 in the ACC. Virginia has gone 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, but just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Chapel Hill. The Cavs have been an average offensive team this year, ranking 169th in scoring (68.0 ppg), 41st in shooting (47.0%), 34th in 3 point shooting (38.8%) and 14th in FT shooting (74.8%). Defensively the Cavaliers have been excellent, ranking 1st in points allowed (50.2 ppg), 2nd in defensive FG% (35.1%) and 41st in 3 point defense (30.4%).
The North Carolina Tar Heels have won 11 of their last 13 games, but they do come in off a tough 78-68 OT loss at Louisville on Saturday. The Heels really blew the game as they had an 18 point lead in the second half. The Heels now are 17-5 overall, including 7-2 in the ACC and 9-2 at home. North Carolina has gone 55-26-1 ATS in their last 82 games following a S.U. loss, but just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs the ACC. North Carolina has been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 17th in scoring (79.5 ppg), 46th in shooting (46.6%), 225th in 3 point shooting (33.0%) and 163rd in FT shooting (69.2%). Defensively the Heels have been rather average, ranking 192nd in points allowed (67.0 ppg), 10th in defensive FG% (37.3%) and 9th in 3 point defense (28.0%).
Pick: Going to look at the over here. Virginia just play a home game vs Duke, in which 132 points were scored and I feel they should reach the 130+ point mark again, especially at North Carolina where their home games have averaged 146.8 ppg, while Virginia road games have averaged 129 ppg so far. The Cavs do allow 58.1 ppg on the road, but I don't see them slowing down this Carolina offense that averages 81.6 ppg at home all that much. The Heels have also averaged 67.7 ppg in ACC lay this year. Gonna be hard to slow this team down in this one. The Cavs have been a solid offensive team o the road where they have averaged 70.9 ppg and Carolina is not a great defensive team, allowing 65.2 ppg at home this year and 71.8 ppg in their last 5 games. The Heels at home should be able to get this game sped up enough so that it is played in the 130s.
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