The NBA season is right around the corner and the Philadelphia 76ers 2013 NBA Championship Odds are currently at 30-1 ($100 bet pays $3000). They are 10-1 to win the Eastern Conference and their over/under season win total projection is 47.5. Below is the overall season preview by Pregame Pro André Gomes. 

Dominant first half of last season:

Doug Collins maximized all the human potential he had on his hands last season. Philadelphia didn’t present a lot of changes on their roster and with an already known system, previously assimilated by their players, the 76ers entered the season in a very strong way, taking the league by storm, especially in the defensive end.

By February 13th, Philadelphia had a 20-9 record and they were squashing their opponents by 9.10 points per game! Only Chicago had a better point differential at the time, something that really demonstrates Philadelphia’s domination around that time. However, the team had an easy schedule until that period, as their previous opponents had combined a 45.3% winning percentage, with only Chicago and the Knicks having had an easier schedule than the 76ers.

So, how would Philadelphia behave against the strongest teams in the league in an almost successive way?

The answer was given almost immediately on a road trip where Philadelphia lost consecutively in Orlando, Dallas, Minnesota (still with Ricky Rubio on court), Memphis and Houston.

After having entered the season with a 20-9 record, Philadelphia couldn’t even be an average team by finishing the regular season with a 15-22 record in the remaining 37 games.

Doug Collins’ “successful” formula:

2011-12 Regular Season Numbers:

Doug Collins knew he didn’t have any dominant frontcourt player on his roster. Elton Brand was far from his prime and so, the team’s offense was based in the strength of their perimeter.

Collins’ idea was easy to understand: he didn’t want the team to take any risk offensively and Philadelphia was #1 in the league in not committing turnovers  with an incredible 10.78% TO/rate%!

The team wasn’t aggressive enough to go to the free throw line (#30 in the league in free throws attempted per game) and due to not having any dominant player in the interior game, no team tried less shots at the rim than the 76ers, with just 25.3% of the 76ers shots being at the rim.

At the same time, Philadelphia was #1 in the league in shots attempted per game from 10-15 feet (14.2%) and #4 from 16-23 feet (27.09%). Finally, even though we can classify Philadelphia as a “jump shooting team”, they didn’t attempt a lot of 3pts shots – just #26 with 17.5%!

Unsustainable formula for the future?

It’s almost impossible for a team to have success with the offensive formula Philadelphia used last season: a team that is last in FT/game and shots at the rim, while being perimeter based but just #26 in the league in 3pts attempts, with 44% of their shots being the worst possible area in the field (10-23 feet) can’t be long term successful.

Maybe because of that and even though Philadelphia was just one game away from facing Miami in the Eastern conference final, the 76ers office decided that last season’s roster wasn’t good enough for them to stay competitive in the future.

An elite defense!

It’s clear that the main reason for the surprising domination of the 76ers in the early season was mostly due to their defense. Philadelphia had favorable circumstances in the early season: a lot of players were out of form, with limited time to practice, most teams didn’t have the proper time to develop their offense, but the 76ers can’t be blamed for taking advantage of these favorable circumstances for them.

With the “decline” of their defense (Philadelphia saw their numbers regressing month after month in points per possession allowed and defensive rates) and without being able to improve their offense in a way that could allow them to compensate this defensive regression, the 76ers’ loss of competitiveness in the second half of the season was quite natural.

Even though they didn’t have a “dominant” player on their interior game, Philadelphia was #3 in protecting their own board by allowing just 24.4% offensive rebounds and they were indeed the best team in the league in points in the paint per game allowed with just 36.4 ppg! Elton Brand isn’t appreciated due to his contract, but he was a very important player on the team’s defense last season.

Doug Collins took advantage of the fact he had two excellent perimeter defensive players on his roster in Jrue Holliday and Andre Iguodala, but this doesn’t take away any credit in the way he built his team into one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Offseason moves 2012-13:

It’s clear that Philadelphia didn’t enter the offseason with the goal of signing Andrew Bynum. His signing was due to a favorable market circumstance that Philadelphia took advantage from, as it that wasn’t true, they wouldn’t have previously signed with Spencer Hawes and Kwame Browns! So, we are now talking about a team that will be entering this season with three real centers, something unique in the NBA this season. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 76ers try to trade Hawes until the end of the trade deadline.

Bynum is clearly the team’s biggest signing with the potential risk that he can leave the team at the end of the season, so this is clearly a huge gamble from Philadelphia.

Andre Iguodala isn’t the team’s “franchise player” anymore, as he is now in Denver, but he wasn’t the only one leaving the team. In fact, only 5 players will return to Philadelphia this season (Holliday, Turner, Hawes, Young and Allen), something weird considering the 76ers are coming from a successful season.

For the perimeter, Philadelphia signed Jason Richardson, Nick Young and Dorell Wright and the team is also putting some hopes on rookie Arnett Moultrie.

 What will be the impact of Andrew Bynum?

For the better or the worse, Philadelphia will reach what Andrew Bynum will be capable of taking them in both ends of the court. On the offensive end, there are no secrets about Bynum’s game: his lack of mobility prevents him from being a threat in the pick and roll, with mostly of his offensive game consisting in post up plays and offensive rebounds:

It will be interesting to see what Doug Collins will do with his offensive system, now that he has Andrew Bynum on his roster. Philadelphia was the team last season that had less attempts at the rim and in terms of post up plays%, the 76ers had also a volume well below the league’s average. With Bynum, the team will automatically have better numbers close to the basket and even more free throw attempts per game due to the offensive presence of Bynum. The key will be how he will get along with his new teammates on court. Will they be able to maximize on the focus Bynum will surely get from their opponents?

In an ideal scenario, Doug Collins will want to do what Stan Van Gundy did in Orlando with Dwight Howard: fill of the rest of the lineup with great shooters, playing around the big man

Over the last three seasons, Orlando was always the team that tried more 3pts shots in the league, while Philadelphia was always one of the ten teams in the league that tried less 3pts shots per game, so this change of philosophy will be interesting to follow.

What’s the ideal perimeter for the team?

Andre Iguodala was never known for being a good shooter and his numbers confirm this, even though he had a career high of 39.4% 3pts last season. The problem is that Iguodala wasn’t the only bad shooter in the league, as both Evan Turner and Jrue Holliday are also far from being consistently good shooters.

Iguodala’s presence didn’t help Turner’s affirmation in Philadelphia that was relegated to the “doghouse” several times by Doug Collins. Turner will now have the opportunity to step it up on his third season as a professional. He is excellent in attacking the basket, but he needs to improve his outside game, as he tried just 0.8 3pts per game with just 22.4% of success!

Also Jrue Holiday had some problems last season with the presence of Iguodala and his point forward role on the team. Holiday had less two assists per game last season in comparison with the previous season, while his offensive game is still a work in progress – 43.2% FG while shooting just 40% FG from 16-23 feet. However, he will probably be the player who will mostly benefit from Bynum’s presence in the team and it will be up to Doug Collins to maximize Holliday to his full potential.

Jason Richardson was the team’s main signing for the team’s backcourt. His shooting skills from the perimeter will be very important for the team, but it’s important that Richardson has a better season than the one he had in the previous season, where he was terrible and reached some career lows on his numbers, with just 40.8% FG and a ridiculous 59.4% FT!

Nick Young will have the role of replacing Louis Williams and the 76ers don’t have a lot of depth on their backcourt. With Bynum dominating in the center position, Thaddeus Young may spend this season playing in the Power Forward position the whole time.

Final Thoughts:

Andrew Bynum’s acquisition brings a lot of expectations to the team, but in my opinion they won’t be fulfilled.

Bynum is yet to show that he can be a team’s leader, not only in terms of dedication to his teammates, as also in psychological terms. There are several bad examples from him in LA last season and it will be up to Bynum to show the world that he is now a new player in a new team.

The way he will fit on both the defense and the offense will determinate the success or lack of success of Philadelphia this season. Doug Collins has already shown that he can maximize the resources he has available, so it will be interesting to follow the team’s evolution this season.

The Atlantic division is stronger than ever and even though I don’t believe the 76ers will be able to secure home court advantage of the first round of the playoffs, this seems to be the goal on Philadelphia’s mind at the start of this season.

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