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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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2013 NBA Championship Odds and Betting Preview: New Orleans Hornets

The NBA season is right around the corner and the New Orleans Hornets 2013 NBA Championship Odds are currently at 250-1 ($100 bet pays $25200. They are 125-1 to win the Western Conference and their over/under season win total projection is 26,5. Below is the overall season preview by Pregame Pro André Gomes.

The Hornets didn’t have a pleasant offseason at the start of the last season. They continued to be without an owner, their best player Chris Paul decided he didn’t want to stay in New Orleans and forced a trade, while their second best player David West decided to leave to Indiana as a free agent, without the Hornets getting anything in exchange for him.

Eventually, Chris Paul was traded to the Clippers in exchange for Eric Gordon, a few more players and some draft picks and the Hornets were immediately cataloged as being the worst team in the West.

2011-12 Regular Season Numbers:

Advanced Numbers

4 Factors

Overall

#'s

Rank

Offense

#'s

Rank

Defense

#'s

Rank

Pace

87.05

30

eFG% Off

47.9%

20

eFG% Def

48.6%

13

Offense

102.42

26

TO% Off

15.25

29

TO% Def

13.57

19

Defense

106.52

16

Reb% Off

27.07

17

Reb% Def

26.69

15

Rebound

50.19

17

FT% Off

21.29

13

FT% Def

22.09

21

 

The problem is that the team besides not having a lot of talent, they also had to lead with a considerable number of injuries: Eric Gordon played just 9 games, Okafor missed 39 games, Ariza missed 25 games, Jack missed 21 games, Kaman missed 19 games and Landry missed 25 games – these six players were supposed to be the six best players of the team!

Anyway, Coach Monty Williams made a good job and if it wasn’t for the fact that the Hornets lost a lot of close games, they would have had a much better record. Between the worst teams in the league, the Hornets were the ones with a not-so-bad point differential and they were also the second lowly team that suffered less blowout losses.

Teams

W

L

Pts Dif.

Losses>10

Detroit

25

41

-4.8

27

Toronto

23

43

-3.3

21

Golden State

23

43

-3.4

16

New Jersey

22

44

-6.0

26

Sacramento

22

44

-5.7

24

Cleveland

21

45

-7.2

26

New Orleans

21

45

-3.8

19

Washington

20

46

-4.8

26

Charlotte

7

59

-13.9

38

 

So, it’s clear that Monty Williams made a good job in taking advantage of the players he had available and he was able to motivate his players or the team wouldn’t have won six of their last nine games!

Offseason moves 2012-13:

The Hornets had the “luck” of getting the #1 pick and so, their choice was immediately made: Anthony Davis. With the draft pick that came from the Clippers in exchange for Chris Paul, the Hornets had also the #10 pick in the draft and they chose Austin Rivers, who is far from having a consensus around him on his NBA potential, but the Hornets were willing to take a chance on him.

The team also used the free agency market to improve their frontcourt: Robin Lopez came from Phoenix to give depth on the frontcourt, while they also took advantage of the Magic indecision to get Ryan Anderson in a sign-and-trade deal.

For the backcourt, the Hornets didn’t want to resign Jarrett Jack, but they will give a shot to Greivis Vasquez, who took advantage of the opportunity he had last season to play well and to show that he can be an important piece in the team.

Rebuilding Process: Year 2

In my preview of the Houston Rockets, I’ve mentioned that the Rockets will be the most inexperienced team in the league, but the truth is that Hornets aren’t much more experienced.

NBA experience from the players that are likely to be part of the Hornets starting lineup:

Greivis Vasquez                              1
Eric Gordon                       4
Al-Farouq Aminu             2
Ryan Anderson                                4
Anthony Davis                 0

Anthony Davis is clearly the player that will be more talked about on this team and there are no doubts that he is indeed the most talented player coming from this draft. His immediate impact will be especially at the defensive end and on rebounding, while he will be working on his offensive development. His maturity for his age is remarkable and the experience he had this season in playing in the Olympic Games will certainly help him. We are talking about a player that we will constantly forget that he is a rookie and the Hornets are definitely very well served for the following years on this position.

Eric Gordon was the vital piece in the Chris Paul deal and even though he signed a sheet with the Phoenix Suns this offseason, the Hornets matched the offer and he will remain in New Orleans. Since then, Gordon’s main problem has been his injuries. He missed 20 games in 2009-10, 26 games in 2010-11 and last season he played just 9 games due to a severe knee injury and then he also had some back problems. The last news aren’t good, as Gordon didn’t start the training camp because of the same knee injury.  Gordon is an explosive player and that needs to be 100% healthy to be effective, so if the Hornets want to be at least a bit competitive this season, then Gordon will need to have a good season and without injuries.

Ryan Anderson will have to survive now without Dwight Howard on his side. He showed a big defensive improvement last season by having a career high of 7.7 rebounds per game. Anthony Davis won’t have the defensive attention that Dwight Howard forced the opponents to give him, so Anderson won’t have the offensive freedom he used to have in Orlando, but still, a PF that almost shoots 40% 3pts while trying more than 5 attempts per game is a valuable player on any team.

Depth Problems in the roster

This will be the Hornets’ biggest problem this season. For the Small Forward position, the Hornets will only have Al-Farouq Aminu and Darius Miles fighting for minutes and they aren’t a guarantee of quality. Aminu showed nothing on offense over the last two seasons by shooting 39.4% and 41.1% FG, while Miles is lacking experience to impose himself as a quality option on the league.

Austin Rivers is still a question mark in how he will adapt to the NBA and to the fact that the Hornets want him to play at the PG position, while Vasquez even though he played well last season, he seems to be a good backup PG, but not exactly starting PG material on the NBA.

If Gordon isn’t able to keep himself healthy, then the Hornets will definitely be in the trouble. Rivers can always play at the SG position, but besides him, the Hornets have only Xavier Henry and Roger Mason Jr…

On the frontcourt, Hakim Warrick, Jason Smith and Robin Lopez will be the options on the bench. Monty Williams has been using Robin Lopez in the starting lineup on the preseason, which doesn’t seem to be a good offensive solution for the Hornets, with Lopez and Davis playing at the same time.

Final Thoughts

Monty Williams has been putting the Hornets playing at the slowest pace in the league and they definitely have a team more directed for the half court basketball. If the Hornets can be reasonable on defense, they will struggle in scoring due to their lack of offensive skills from their frontcourt players.

The rebuilding process of the Hornets will continue this season and it will certainly make them have a top draft pick next season as well. Just like last season, New Orleans won’t be an easy opponent, as they won’t easily quit on their games, as that has been the mindset of the teams coached by Monty Williams and this year won’t be certainly different.

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter @GomesCapper

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My name is André Gomes, I’m from Portugal and I am a Professional Handicapper. My sole purpose is to constantly beat the sportsbooks by taking advantage of the evaluation errors they make. It is most... Read more

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