The best college basketball conference in the country, the Big East, begins its 2011 post-season tournament on Tuesday, tipping off fifteen games in five days of hyper-competitive hoops action at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
2011 Big East Tournament Odds:
Pittsburgh: 22% ($100 wins $350)
Notre Dame: 22% ($100 wins $350)
Syracuse: 16.5% ($100 wins $500)
Louisville: 11% ($100 wins $800)
St. Johns: 9% ($100 wins $1050)
WVU: 5% ($100 wins $1900)
Georgetown: 5% ($100 wins $1900)
U Conn: 3% ($100 wins $3100)
Cincinnati: 2.5% ($100 wins $3800)
Villanova: 2% ($100 wins $4600)
Field of Remaining 6 teams: 2% ($100 wins $4600)
The odds above are True Odds – the only odds format that accurately represents the actual likelihood of an outcome. Nearly all odds published elsewhere have failed to remove the sportsbook commission, which varies dramatically between outlets and has no legitimate effect on the likelihood on an outcome. Without commission removal, odds significantly underestimate the chance of an outcome occurring. Logic dictates that adding the percentage chance of all possible outcomes of an event should equal 100% (as the True Odds above do); adding all possible outcomes of odds without commission removed will often equal 80% or less – proving their misleading and inaccurate nature.
Bracket Factors:
The top four teams listed above have to win only three games to take home the Big East championship, while the middle teams have to win four games, while the lowest seeds have to win five games in five days. Check out the Big East Conference Tournament bracket.
Team Notes:
Pitt won the regular season BigEast Title. Notre Dame has won 11 of 12 entering the tournament. St. Johns enjoys the advantage of playing on their home floor. ESPN predicts 11 Big East teams will make the NCAA tournament, meaning #12 seed Seton Hall has to win this tournament to make the Big Dance.
Picks and Predictions:
Having to win only three games is a big advantage, but betting favorites does not typically offer strong value, so I am inclined to look toward Louisville – the team offering the biggest payout while still benefiting from a double-bye.
Comments . . .
What 2011 Big East Tournament odds do you think offer the best value?
What March Madness handicapping factors are the expert previews overlooking in the Big East Tourney?