Its no secret that I made a 3* Best Bet on the Celtics last night...and I also urged my guys to go ahead and bet 3* more on the Celtics at +160 to win the series. Truth is, my reasoning on the series wager was not soley based on the fact that I believe the Celtics will be the Champs...because unlike the Redwings where I had no doubts, this time we were taking the side the oddsmakers say is less likely to win it all. But I remembered back at all the years that I spent wagering for sharps and whenever a series price was sent out where the team with the home advantage was made the underdog...both 2-way communications, and all 3 sky-tells were barking out orders to get down as much as possible, as quickly as possible. Many of the times, after I was finished making those plays with both, books here on the Strip as well as with outs across the country, I would swing by headquarters before calling it a day. And since I was also wagering on everything they sent out for myself as well, the one time I really disagreed, I made sure that prior to getting down for myself, I would swing by and ask my guy for some reasoning...and that became one of those instances in all of our lives when we finally understand something...I mean, its like in the movies when someone gets a revelation and you see a light around them...because that very instance, it all began to make sense, and I began to look at sports betting as actually a market, rather than entertainment that I get paid to enjoy. That is when I realized how these guys don't care one bit about favorite teams, or even gut feelings...instead they were simply looking to take advantage of any opportunity that they saw profit pending, and didn't even watch the games. It was about setting yourself up, and manipulating the market when possible...while knowing that you have a huge edge because the bookmakers are forced to acknowledge the public at times more than the wiseguys.

So getting back to my Celtics Series wager...my main reasoning behind it was that I was almost certain that being able to get them at a very good price as the dog...since they had home-court advantage...that if need be, the opportunities to hedge will be present as the series goes on. And since I really liked them in Game 1, I was also certain that this would be the very best time to jump on them. Besides the work that I did to capp the series and the game, which pointed to Boston being a solid play, I also knew, as I wrote in my analysis for last night's game, that history was definately on our side in Game 1. The home-teams in that exact situation, not only in the NBA Finals, but in the Playoffs as a whole, and even with other sports that use a 7 Game series to decide the winner...had an incredible game 1 winning percentage.

Now we move on to Game 2, but before we do...the oddsmakers have adjusted the Series price again, and this time, the concensus has the LA Lakers still installed as a -120 Favorite. I am not saying that there is no way the Lakers can win, I mean the Sixers had taken Game 1 from them also and then lost 4 straight...but what I am saying is that once again, the market is offering a lot of opportunity for those who are willing to put their feelings aside and concentrate on making money instead.

The reasons for this are simple...if you do like Boston to win Game 2 and do not have a Series wager...then its a no-brainer to unload on them for the series instead. Doing this will allow you to make all kind of moves as the series resumes because with a win in Gm2, the Celtics are guaranteed a Game 6 at home. And even if they do lose Game 2, you still are holding a pending wager at EVEN money, which may allow the opportunity to middle later, rather than even look to hedge.

Now taking a look at the new series price, regardless of the outcome...the true value still definately lies with the Celtics, and not only because of the all the opportunites that I spoke about above...instead, when we take a look at history, here is what we find:

HOME TEAMS WINNING GM 1 of NBA FINALS : WIN the SERIES 80% (36-9)

HOME TEAMS WINNING GM 1 of NBA PLAYOFFS : WIN the SERIES 86.4% (242-38)

HOME TEAMS WINNING GM 1 of PLAYOFFS (all sports) : WIN the SERIES 79.3% (560-146)

HOME TEAMS WINNING GM 1 of FINALS (all sports) : WIN the SERIES 77.1% (118-35)

So as much as I am a huge supporter of "each game is an independent event"...I also realize that we are speaking about a very huge sample above, and not a trend which has happened 8 of 10 times. The information above simply shows that anyone willing to take EVEN money on an 80% Probability can now go ahead and do so...by walking up to the window and taking a stand on the Celtics to WIN the Championship...for myself, I still have a lot of work to do for Game 2, and those findings will help me determine out next course of action...but right now, I feel pretty good about having my Best Bet at +160 on an 80% proposition...and more importantly, as we discussed above...this market affords us all the opportunity to set our investments up if we plan wisely and right now, I think that with the options that will be available to us, by taking Boston...it should prove to be a wise move.

Do you feel the same, or do the Lakers at only -120 now look like a steal ???