MORNING MOVES NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 13, 2011
VEGAS RUNNERS’S VALUE TOP 10 LIST + MONEY METER…for CFB & NFL BETTING MARKETS !!
Betting volume is at an all time high according to bookmakers and that trend will continue over the next couple of months in CFB and NFL. The MLB betting market is seeing a decrease in volume from recreational bettors who are using it mostly for parlays regardless of whether or not there is football being played that day. That will change when the post-season gets here and prime-time televised games are being played daily.
We saw in week 2 of CFB that odds makers are prepared for “over-reactions” based on 60 min of football played in week 1. That’s exactly what we are seeing this week in the NFL and most agree that the biggest adjustments are made between week’s 1 and 2.
Finally, I will pass on adding MLB teams to the list this week because it’s obvious which teams are over or under valued. The bottom line is that odds makers know to inflate the price on teams that fall into the “must-win” category until the playoffs get here.
In closing, odds makers and sharps both agreed that the new “kick-off” rule will result in lower-scoring games and in week 1 we saw the majority of totals get adjusted towards the under. But with most games going over the total and public money out-weighing wise guy money in the NFL, it appears the totals for week 2 have been shaded towards the over.
We know that the best way to profit is by getting ahead of the market and in this case, the betting market doesn’t agree with odds makers and sharps on totals. It will be interesting to see when we have a much bigger sample size which side was right…Now let’s get to this week’s list…
TOP 5 “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS :
Not only did they dismantle the Steelers in week 1, but they also crushed bettors who came in heavy on the dog since that line went up. There is no doubt they will now be looking to back the Ravens and odds makers will be forced to inflate the line to compensate.
Sharps lost with the Rams but that didn’t help books much since so much public money was wagered on the Birds. It’s no secret the “dream team” will continue attracting money from bettors and odds makers will have to charge a big premium to try and protect the books and attempt to get the wise guys to grab the value and limit exposure.
Received a ton of hype coming into the season and didn’t disappoint all those backers in week 1 when they covered with ease on the road. After having the most profitable ATS record in the entire NFL last year they are no longer a “fade” team and odds makers will be forced to inflate the price.
4.) OKLAHOMA ST
They continue to receive a ton of public money and the higher they get up the rankings, the more they’ll leave books exposed. For example, the Golden Nugget opened OK St at -7 for this week’s game back in July, but this week odds makers opened them up at -14 for that same game.
Most sharps I spoke with don’t even have them in their Top 15, while the AP/USA Today have them in their Top 10. That is a perfect example of what “over-valued” means and with an inflated price due to the public money they attract, sharps will look to take advantage by finding spots to go against them.
TOP 5 “UNDER-VALUED” TEAMS :
NO team in the NFL will receive less betting action from recreational bettors for their week 1 performance because they looked horrible without Manning. It’s clear he’s extremely valuable to his team but rarely is any team as good or bad as they may have looked in a single game. Bottom line, they will be discounted more than any other team in sports at the moment and that should result in value.
Sharps faded them last week and it worked out well as KC got embarrassed at home by the Bills. That lopsided loss will have recreational bettors looking to join the party by fading them ahead. Their stock is very low and that’s when it’s almost always best to buy.
Getting beat on MNF won’t always mean a team will offer value ahead but it’s the way the Fins lost that should make that the case. Cantor actually offered them up at -3 in week 2 back when they posted their lines for the season but odds makers opened them up +3. That definitely has something to do with the way the Texans looked in week 1..but it’s also been influenced by Miami.
4.) NOTRE DAME
Plenty of sharps I spoke with still have the Irish in their Top 20 even at 0-2 but recreational bettors think they’re awful. That almost always means a team will offer value because most lines are created with the public in mind. Strangely enough, a team that’s been over-valued for decades is now one of the MOST under-valued in all of CFB.
They’re an after-thought this season and because of that, I believe they offer plenty of value. After barely getting past Wofford in week 2, there won’t be many recreational bettors wanting to back them against tougher competition. But historically, it’s nothing new for a quality team to be looking ahead to much bigger game ahead.
*** BONUS BOXING ***
1.) VICTOR ORTIZ...."OVER-VALUED"
HBO has once again done a masterful job of making a fight look much more competative than it will ultmately be. Mayweather was as high as -850 at some Vegas books and is expected to go off as low as -500 when bettors line up to take the dog.
MLB = 70% SHARP / 30% PUBLIC
The ratio of sharp bettors is even greater on weekends when the public is focused solely on football.
CFB = 65% PUBLIC / 35% SHARP
The ratio is lower for the public early in the week and even greater on game-day…but on average that’s the type of money being wagered on average. Keep in mind, the more marquee a match-up is the greater the public money will be.
NFL = 70% PUBLIC / 30% SHARP
Just like w/ CFB the ratio is higher for sharps early in the week but come game-day most books agree that as high as 90% of the money wagered is public money.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.