VEGAS-RUNNER's "VALUE TOP 10" LIST ...NBA, NHL, & MLB...for Week of 6-1-11
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...It's time to release this week's version of my "Value Top 10" which isolates those teams that are "over & under" valued in the betting market. This is an exercise that all sports bettors and handicappers should do on a weekly basis because it allows them to isolate those teams that will be offered at a premium or discount.
With this in mind, a bettor can then determine how much more support in the form of information or data he/she may need to back these teams and overcome the bias...Remember that with "over-valued" teams we would need a lot more support to overcome the bias that's been added to the price by oddsmakers to compensate for the public's perception. With "under-valued" teams a bettor would need less support because the price is already being offered at a discount.
The bottom line is that we will not look to fade or back these teams in every spot, instead we will look for positions where the data and information support making a wager...and by knowing the market perception we can better isolate "true" value.
I like to compare it to the stock market where a company may be rock solid and have a great product, but if it's not priced right there really isn't any value for investors to capitalize on. Value is present when the true worth isn't reflected in the price being offered.
Since the betting public are a major factor considered by oddsmakers when creating the price in our market, many times that price will reflect perception more than true intrinsic value and that's when we are able to profit. So let's move on to this week's list and identify those teams that are being offered at a discount and which have a premium added.
"5" MOST "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) DALLAS MAVERICKS...They were as under-valued as you can get throughout the playoffs which is supported by their amazing ATS record breaking run...Now that they're in the Finals, public perception has changed and the oddsmakers have had to compensate by adding a premium...The fact they were only +4.5 in Game 1 vs Miami and +160 in the Series reflects the oddsmakers trying to protect their clients (the books) from all the public money that was expected on Dallas...And that's exactly what happened as books reported they were very one-sided on both...Remember, when it comes to Championship Games & Finals the public loves to see the "Underdog" win so this was no surprise.
2.) VANCOUVER CANUCKS...They made quick work of SJ while the Bruins needed "two" Game 7's to reach the Finals so oddsmakers were well aware which team the public would be backing...In their L/9 games they've scored more than 3 goals in 8 of them and we know that recreational bettors prefer offense...With NHL betting volume low on straight bets and the majority of wagers being exotics, oddsmakers know the books will be getting mostly "favorite" money...unlike in Finals for other sports...When rec bettors tie up parlays they usually do so with heavy favs.
3.) COLORADO ROCKIES...They've been getting a lot of support at the betting window according to bookmakers especially when they're at home...So far a $100 bettor is down over $1,300 on the season backing the Rockies and at 25-29 Overall, it's obvious they've been over-priced...This is nothing new and last season even though they finished above .500, a $100 bettor lost well over a dime...As long as they continue to attract public money, we can expect to continue seeing a premium added to the price.
4.) DETROIT TIGERS...It seems like every week we have an AL Central team on the "over-valued" side and since only 1 team is showing a profit in 2011...we've been right to do so...Even though they've won 6 of 10 and 3 straight games, the Tigers still have a NEGATIVE run-differential...They attract public money yearly and because of that, the Tigers haven't turned a profit for bettors since 2007 when they won a little more than $100 for the entire season...This helps prove that when oddsmakers place a premium on a team, it's very difficult for them to turn a profit even when they have a winning record overall.
5.) LA DODGERS...How can I not continue to add them to this list when books continue to claim bettors are backing them...They have the 3rd worst run-differential in the NL and a $100 bettor is down almost $700 backing them...But even though they're below .500 at home and on the road this season, they continue to be offered up as favorites...Maybe it's because they're a "big market" team or maybe it's because they have a loyal fan base...but whatever it is, oddsmakers know to add a premium and make them a tough team to win money on.
"5" MOST "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) MIAMI HEAT...Yes, after being on my "over-valued" list for so long...the Heat are being offered at a discount in the NBA Finals...It seems to be that the casual fan and recreational bettor doesn't want to see this star-studded team win the Championship and the betting line reflects that...More importantly, books reported lop-sided money on the Mavs for the Series & Game 1...which just goes to show you how quickly "value" can change from one week to the next when "perception" drives the price...The key factor to keep an eye on is whether that attitude will change from game to game based on results...But for now, a discount has been placed on Miami.
2.) BRUINS...Even after getting past their nemisis Montreal and getting revenge on the Flyers, the fact it took them 7 games to beat the Lightening has them under-valued in the Finals...They were the best team in the Eastern Conference all season but it appears that bettors expect the Canucks to have an easy time of it and win the Stanley Cup...I don't expect that perception to change much throughout the series and there should be some good spots where they are offered at a discount.
3.) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS...Probably the hottest team in MLB but even after winning 8 of their L/10 games, bettors don't have the confidence to back them just yet...Maybe it's because they haven't been very competative since winning the World Series w/ Johnson & Shilling and the betting public has gotten used to fading them...But with a +19 run-differential and a huge home-field advantage, I don't think that's the sharp move...Hopefully bettors won't catch on and we can keep making money backing the DBacks who are currently the 2nd most profitable team in the NL and 3rd in all of MLB.
4.) MILWAUKEE BREWERS...Coming into the season they were the "sexy" pick to win it all and because of that, offered almost no value early on...But when they didn't get off to the best start, it appeared most jumped ship and the Brewers were all but forgotten...Well, they are now just 2.5 games out of 1st place in the NL Central and with a +16 run-differential...have plenty of up-side...The fact they are doing so poorly on the road is actually a good sign because they should progress to the mean and with such a great home field edge, this team can be extremely dangerous over the summer.
5.) TORONTO BLUE JAYS...As long as the Yankees, Red Sox, & Rays are above them in the AL East...the Jays will continue to be overlooked and because of that, should continue to offer up a ton of betting value...They have a better run-differential than 2 of those 3 teams and are the ONLY one that's showing a profit on the season...If it wasn't such a tough division, this is the kind of team I'd look to for a future bet...But because so few make the playoffs, we'll stick to looking for spots to back them on a day to day basis.