"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER" for TUESDAY APRIL 12th, 2011
VR's "VALUE TOP 10" LIST...for Week of 4-12 thru 4-19 !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...It's Tuesday, and that means it's time to release this week's version of my "Value Top 10" for the MLB & NBA Betting Markets...
Last week's version had plenty of successes...as we watched the "Over-Valued" Red Sox 2 of their first 10 games this season, costing a $100 bettor close to a dime...Then in the NBA, the "Over-Valued" Lakers lost their L/5 games SU & ATS...
And on the "Under-Valued" side of the list...the Royals have rewarded backers by earning a $100 bettor close to a nickel so far this season...Then the Wizards, who made the "Under-Valued" list 3 straight weeks...have gone on to cover the spread in 7 of their L/10 games...
Sure, there will obviously be those teams that "Over-Perform" and "Under-Perform"...And fortunately, we've been able to follow & fade successfully around that mine-field...But at the end of the day, I believe that this list is a huge asset to all sports bettors and handicappers alike...
It's comprised from information that I've gathered from bookmakers, wiseguys, handicappers, ect...then coupled with my own experience and market analysis, to try and determine which teams the market should continue to "Over-Value" and "Under-Value" in the coming week...
I urge all sports bettors to use this tool, and better yet...add and subract teams that they believe should be on or off the list...The beauty of this racket, is that we'll all see value differently...And it's us, the bettors who ultimately create the betting market by wagering on teams we believe offer value, and fade those who don't...
So without further delay, here is my personaly version of this week's list...VR
VEGAS-RUNNER'S "VALUE TOP 10" LIST
"5" MOST "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) MIAMI HEAT
With only 2 days left in the NBA Regular Season, few teams will make this week's list due to the fact we still have to see the series prices sent out by the oddsmakers later this week...to compare to our own "win probability"...But rest assured, the Heat will be one of the most "over-valued" teams heading into the 1st Round of the Playoffs...and probably much further than that...Bottom Line, not only is this a team loaded with "star players"...but they are a "public team" that continues to get support at the betting window, even when going through a rough patch...But when they are hot, very few teams attract the volume of action they do...And they head into the Playoffs, having secured the #2 spot...and cashing tickets in 6 of their L/10 games...For the season, they are 2 games below .500 ATS...so bettors haven't gotten rich backing them...With that said, books would definitely prefer that teams this marquee...do much worse...I expect the market will force the oddsmakers to put an even bigger premium on them in the Post-Season, ultimately making them extremely over-valued...VR
2.) NY YANKEES
Year in and year out, bettors know that there's not much value to be had when backing the Yankees...And yet, year in and year out, the oddsmakers are forced to keep them "over-valued" due to the heavy betting volume they attract...Not just on straight bets, since many times they carry heavy chalk...but very few teams are tied into more exotics (parlays), and wagered so heavily on the RL (run-line), as these NYY...So far this season, they are 5-4 SU...and have cost a $100 bettor a little less than a half ($50)...But that same NYY team, is only 3-6 on the RL...costing a $100 bettor a little more than $3 ($300) dollars...And I believe fading them on the RL, is where bettors will continue to get the most bang for their buck...Nothing supports this reasoning more than the fact they are only +3 on Run Differential...And when you've managed to win 5 games, with a Run Diff of only +3...you won't be getting many RL covers...With the Red Sox & Rays having dismal starts this season, I have no doubt that the NYY will be receiving even more attention at the betting window, ensuring a premium will be attatched by oddsmakers...VR
3.) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Coming into the 2011 Regular Season, we watched the odds on them continue to drop in the Futures Betting Market...making the ChiSox a very sexy pick to come out of the AL Central...That attraction from bettors continued over these first 2 weeks of the season, as bookmakers report they continue to receive heavy volume from the public every time out...They are currently 6-4 on the season, earning a $100 bettor a little over a dollar in profits...But much of that came against a struggling Rays team, and a $100 bettors is actually down money over their L/4 games...Finally, they've done a lot of damage to the books on the RL, making a $100 bettor almost a nickel in profit...with a +14 Run Differential...But I expect to see some regression in that department, and over their L/4 games...they're at +4, reflecting a slow and steady drop...Look for oddsmakers to continue to put a premium on the Chi Sox, even with the Indians & Royals ahead in their division...And more importantly, since they are also tied into so many exotics...don't be afraid to look at taking the +1.5 runs against them...VR
4.) TEXAS RANGERS
Yes, the Rangers were my pick from the AL to win the World Series at +1500...In fact, I was able to get +2000 & +1800 less than 24hrs before releasing the selection...And here we are less than 5 days later...and bettors are lucky to find +1000 on them today...Don't get me wrong, this team is definitely loaded or I wouldn't have made such a big bet...And sitting at 9-1 so far, and a +34 Run Differential...I could argue they are the best team in baseball...More importantly, a $100 bettor is up over $8 dollars on the season...and they've covered the RL in 8 of their 10 games so far...Bottom line, they are costing the books a bundle...But before we all run out to back them every night, let's keep in mind that even the best teams in MLB...won't even win 60% of their regular season games when all the dust settles...So you can be sure, this kind of win rate won't last...And as oddsmakers continue to increase the premium placed on Texas at the betting window...they will be even more "over-valued" than they are at this time...If you missed the train on Texas, be careful trying to get on at the next stop...price of admission may end up being extremely costly...VR
5.) LA DODGERS
Would any "over-valued' list be complete without at least 1 team from the City of Angels...And since the Lakers continue to receive bad press at the moment, due to their play of late...we'll head over to the baseball diamond and use the Dodgers instead...At first, I thought it's just because I live here in Vegas, that bookmakers claim the LAD are receiving a ton of support from the public...But after speaking to bookmakers as far east as Philly, and further south than Miami, in Costa Rica...I've concluded they're getting betting action from all corners of the earth...And since they find themselves near the top of the West, just a game and a half behind the over-looked Rockies...that betting trend should continue...So far they've come out of the gate 6-4 Overall, rewarding a $100 bettor with a tab bit more than $2 dollars of profit...But dig a little further, and you'll find that they've cost their Run-Line supporters almost -$4 dollars...for that same dollar per game...More importantly, although they sit at a very respectable 6-4...they are currently -5 in Run Differential...which reflects they've had their fair share of good fortune so far...As we bettors know, "luck" has a way of balancing out...and as oddsmakers continue to charge a premium, and their luck begins to change...this is a team that we can stamp as "over-valued"...VR
"5" MOST "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) BOSTON CELTICS
Believe it or not...the beloved Celtics have not been getting much support at the betting window from the public according to bookmakers everywhere...And at 5 games under .500 against the spread for the season...avoiding them has proven to be a smart move...Over the L/10 games, they've cashed a betting ticket only 4 times...but I believe that at the present, the market has this very talented team, "under-valued" heading into the post-season...And when you are #1 in Defensive Points Allowed, #3 in FG% Allowed...and #1 in Offensive FG%...the bottom line is that you have some talent...More importantly, this is a team loaded with veterans who have been there before and know when and how to turn it on...And at 32-8 SU this season at Home, I expect the Celtics to be right there as we approach June...Many believe that they are the 3rd best team in the East at the moment if that...And since we the bettors ultimately create the market-place, I expect them to offer plenty of value ahead in the post-season...VR
2.) ATLANTA HAWKS
This team has lost 5 straight games overall, and 4 straight ATS...And with teams like Chicago, Miami, Boston, Orlando, and even the NY Knicks...these Hawks are an after-thought at best as we approach the NBA Playoffs in the Easter Conference...But when you look at their roster over this tough stretch, you will find some key contributors out of the line-up, which should be beneficial when the grind of the post-season tips off...Remember, this is a team that has been competative for a number of years, and it's not their first rodeo as far as playoff basketball is concerned...This is a team that plays defense, and don't miss free-throws...And at 7 games below .500 plus the Vig, against the spread...I have absolutely no doubt that the market will "under-value" them when the playoffs finally get going...I'm not advocating making a Future Bet on them to win the Championship...but I am urging bettors to be mindful of the extra points the Hawks will receive from oddsmakers ahead...VR
3.) SF GIANTS
Last year's feel-good sports story...seems to be a fading memory this season, as books report the Giants have gotten very little support at the betting window from the public since that opening series against LA...where they lost 3 of 4 games...And with a $100 bettor down well over $2 dollars on the season betting them on the ML or RL...who can blame them...But before we give up on the defending champs just yet, even at 4-6 on the season...they are only 1/2 game out of a 3 way tie for 3rd in the West...And with a Run Differential of +/-0...they haven't had any of that good fortune that they had in 2010...But this is a team that won 60% of their Home Games last year, and currently sits at 2-2 this season...They even managed to win 52% of their Road Games in 2010, and currently sit at 2-4...Finally, they've won 3 of their L/5 games...and can we really fault them for having a Championship Hangover to start the year...I believe they are still a very good ball-club, who even after winning it all...get very little respect in the market-place...And that's exactly the type of under-valued team that I'm looking to back...VR
4.) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Being in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, & Rays...isn't going to get you much attention regardless of your potential or talent...And even though they find themselves ahead of 2 of those teams...and only a 1/2 game behind the other...the Jays are getting very little attention from fans and bettors alike...But I believe that's a big mistake because even after dropping 3 straight games...all played on the west coast, and two of them by only 1 run...this team has the BEST run differential in their division at +13...And in the entire AL, only 3 teams can claim better than that...2 of those are in 1st Place in their Divisions...As of today, a $100 bettor has more or less broken even backing the Jays on the ML or RL...This Jays team is Top 10 in Offense & Pitching...and as their Defense improves and they get a little luckier based on that impressive Run Differential...I believe they lack the attractiveness to get much attention at all, ultimately offering up plenty of betting value in the process...Finally, a $100 bettor made over $1400 on them in 2010...MORE than ANY other team in the Division...or the ENTIRE AMERICAL LEAGUE...Now that's Value...VR
5.) ST LOUIS CARDINALS
This is rare...the Cards considered "under-valued"...But with the way they've come out of the gate to start the 2011 MLB Season...I believe that "under-valued" is exactly what they are at this time...Bottom Line, they are Top 10 in every meaningful Pitching statistic...and at 4-6 Overall...they have a Run Differential of only -1...which is better than 3 of the 4 teams currently above them in their division...As of today, a $100 bettor is down over $4 dollars on the season betting the ML...and surprisingly, for what's been considered an extremely "public" team...they are not receiving much betting action at all...Finally, this is a team that has historically been able to produce offensively...and it's a lack of offense that has them sitting near the basement in the NL Central...I believe those bats will warm up soon enough, especially as the weather improves in the cold mid-west...And as that Offense catches up to their Pitching, and their Run Differential only improves...they'll begin to chalk up some w's for sure...The key will be to see it coming, so we can get down on them while they continue to offer value...And right now, this is one of those good teams...that the market seems to want to "under-value"...VR
There you have it...this week's version of VR's Value Top 10...
Please feel free to share your opinions, suggestions, and comments because I always like to see what more and more bettors think about the current state of the market...
Thanks again for all your support and replies on this Weekly List...And after we get a chance to check out the series prices, along with some actual Playoff Games...you can be sure that next week's version will have some more NBA Teams to go along with those MLB Teams that make the list...
Best of Luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.