"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY MAY 17th, 2011
VR's "VALUE TOP 10" LIST...for Week of 5-17 thru 5-23 !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...It's Tuesday and that means it's time to unviel this week's "Value Top 10". This is a list that every sports bettor & handicapper should create each week because it allows you to identify those teams that are either "over or under" valued in the betting market.
By doing this exercise, one can then determine whether they have sufficient support to overcome the obvious bias on price for over-valued teams...and simultaneously, know they need less support for those teams that are under-valued.
An example of this is "Favorites & Dogs". Since we know that most recreational bettors prefer to wager on favorites, we can then conclude that the oddsmakers will try to increase their edge by creating a price that reflects this bias.
So the key isn't to automatically fade those over-valued teams or even bet those under-valued teams in every spot. Instead, it's to identify them so that a bettor know that are being asked to lay a premium or getting a discount. With this knowledge, it's much easier to find value because you are taking that bias into account.
Now let's move on to this week's teams and see who made the list and who remained or was removed from last week's...
TOP "5" OVER-VALUED MLB & NBA TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) MIAMI HEAT...On top of the list again...They're only 4-4 ATS in their L/8 playoff games but the betting market made this "road team" a favorite to advance to the NBA Finals...The opponent (Bulls) was a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against them in the regular season and even won more games overall...But recreational bettors perfer stars and offense and that's what the NBA betting market is saturated with at the moment.
2.) BOSTON REDSOX...The favorite to win the World Series had a horrific start to the season but bettors kept backing them and waiting to see that over-hyped team....Now that they've won 7 of 10 and are 1 game above .500, they're receiving money every night...Be careful, they're still sporting a negative run-differential and a negative return on investment...That heavy premium placed on them early is back on them now.
3.) NY YANKEES...Currently 3 games behind the Rays but still receiving the most money each night from bettors...They've lost 6 straight and 7 of 10, but continue to be tied into more exotics than any other team in MLB...That fact will continue to force oddsmakers to place a premium on the Yanks and that's why a $100 bettor is already down over a nickel backing them in 2011.
4.) ST LOUIS CARDINALS...The offense has finally gotten it going and they've now produced more runs than any other NL team...But even though they sport a +42 run-differntial (2nd highest in MLB) and are 4 games above .500, they're still showing a loss on the season for their backers...That's a perfect example of why PRICE means everything when it comes to betting sports.
5.) CHICAGO WHITE SOX...They've won 6 of their L/10 and are playing their best ball of the season but they're still 10 games out of 1st place in the AL Central and have cost a $100 bettor almost a dime in 2011...That's because bettors continue to back them and oddsmakers continue to over-price them...Only the Twins have a worse run-differential than them in the AL.
TOP "5" UNDER-VALUED MLB & NBA TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) CHICAGO BULLS...They've covered 5 of their L/6 games and 7 of their L/10 games...But after sweeping the season series against the Heat and having the home-court advantage, oddsmakers made them the dog to advance...That "under-dog" label will last throughout this series and due to lack of playoff experience, may even continue if they get to the Finals.
2.) DALLAS MAVERICKS...Many disagree with me because oddsmakers have made them a favorite to beat the Thunder and get to the Finals...But I continue to believe the market's still under-valuing them and not giving them the credit they deserve for what they've been able to do...They not only swept the Lakers, but they've now broken the record for longest ATS winning streak ever...If they weren't under-valued, they wouldn't be covering spreads at this clip.
3.) TORONTO BLUE JAYS...In a division w/ Yankees, Red Sox, & Rays the Jays are an after-thought...But they're only 3 games out of 1st place, have a +13 run-differential, and have made a $100 bettor almost $400 on the season...That's good enough for 3rd most profitable team in the AL in 2011...Oh yea, and they have Jose Bautista who may be the most exciting player in the majors at the moment.
4.) SF GIANTS...Not many believed they were going to win the WS last season and after proving people wrong, they still aren't getting much respect at all in the betting market...They're currently in 1st place in the NL West, won 7 of their L/10, and only 4 teams in the NL have produced more profit this season...I don't expect the perception to change any time soon.
5.) ATLANTA BRAVES...Yes, I believe this "public team" isn't getting the respect they deserve in the betting market and the fact they were a Home Dog in 2 of 3 against the Phillies this past weekend supports that claim...They're tied for BEST run-differential in the NL and tied for 2nd best in all of MLB...They're young and loaded...Watch out as they gain experience and cohesiveness.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.