"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY MAY 10th, 2011
VR's "VALUE TOP 10" LIST for NBA & MLB for WEEK of 5-10 thru 5-16 !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...It's Tuesday and that means it's time to unveil this week's "Value Top 10" list for NBA and MLB. We'll take a pass on NHL and wait until we have a definite match-up in the Western Conference Finals and also wait to take a look at what price the oddsmakers send out.
Last week we were able to uncover some value from the list as both the Braves and Indians went on to win 7 of their L/10 games respectively after being labeled "under-valued" in MLB. Then in the NBA Playoffs, the "under-valued" Mavs swept the Lakers and the Hawks are holding their own against the Bulls and have covered 7 of their L/10 games overall.
The "over-valued" Celtics find themselves down 3-1 in their series against the Heat, while the Thunder are definitely in a battle against the Grizzlies. In MLB, the "over-valued" Cubs continue to lose money for their backers and the Red Sox went 3-3 in the last week but also managed to burn bettors since they were a heavy favorite in each of those 6 games.
Creating this week's list was a difficult task like usual because as a professional bettor and handicapper, I can almost label every team in every sport as "over or under" valued in the betting market. Perception is such a major factor that oddsmakers consider when setting prices and we bet into a very opinionated market.
Fortunately, this list helps me identify how the market is valuing each team and I know that as I approach each day's match-ups, I will need to uncover more supporting data and information if I plan on backing a team the market has over-valued...likewise, I will need less for those which are under-valued.
Finally, before we move on to this week's list...I urge ALL sports bettors and handicappers to create their own list or use this one as a foundation. Then feel free to add or subtract teams as you see fit because as I always say, we'll all perceive value a little differently which is the ultimate beauty of investing in sports. Now let's move along to the teams that made the list.
"5" MOST "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS in NBA & MLB BETTING MARKETS :
1.) MIAMI HEAT...They've covered 3 of 4 vs Boston and more importantly, bettors backed them in Games 3 & 4 and got the money...Recreational Bettors love offense and they've gone Over in 3 of 4 in this series and 5 of their L/7 games...With 3 "stars" and plenty of media coverage, oddsmakers will have to put an even bigger premium on this team going forward...Remember, the spread is always the great "equalizer" in sports so they could win games and not turn a profit doing it.
2.) TEXAS RANGERS...After coming out of the gate making bettors a lot of money, they are now a .500 ball club who sits 3rd in the AL West...They've lost 7 of their L/10 games and are now only +7 in "Run Differential" after hovering in the +30's for a while...The public continues to back them and oddsmakers continue to charge a premium and as a result, a $100 bettor is now DOWN money backing them...It usually takes a while for opinions to change on good teams so they'll continue to be over-priced.
3.) NY YANKEES...With the Red Sox struggles bettors began turning to their beloved Yanks at the counter and bet them or tied them into exotics every chance they got...Even though they're in 1st place in the AL East and sport a "Run Differential" of +38, they've only made a $100 bettor a little over $200 in profit...That reflects an average job at best done by oddsmakers to protect their clients, the sports books...I believe we'll see them adjust more as the NBA Season winds down, forcing the Yanks to win 2 of 3 to turn a profit.
4.) LA DODGERS...We've used Miami & New York so it's only fitting to add another "big market city" to the mix with LA...With the Lakers now golfing rather than playing basketball, we'll turn to the Dodgers who continue to cost backers money...A $100 bettors is down almost $600 backing them on the ML and with a -35 "Run Differential", that should only get worse...The reason is simple, the Dodgers continue to get bet on by the public so they continue to be installed as "over-valued" favorites (favored in 8 of L/10) and cost backers money.
5.) MINNESOTA TWINS...Yes, even at 12-22 on the season and already 10 games out of 1st place in the AL Central, bettors refuse to quit on the Twins...Maybe they've gotten so used to them being competative because with a -64 "Run Differential" and continously losing almost 7 of 10 games they play...I see no real reason to look for spots to back them...Yet books report the Twins continue to receive action so oddsmakers are in no rush to adjust...When premiums are placed on bad teams that keep getting wagered on, the end result is only profitable for bookmakers.
"5" MOST "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS in the NBA & MLB BETTING MARKETS :
1.) DALLAS MAVERICKS...We had them on the list last week and once again even after sweeping the Lakers, I've labeled them "under-valued" again...Remember, this was the higher seeded team in the 1st round that wasn't supposed to advance and now that they're the 1st team to reach the NBA Conference Finals...they're still getting no respect...Rather than receiving any credit for how well they've been playing, we instead hear that the Lakers lost because of their "off the court" drama, rather than because they were out-played...This is a very good team/company who continues to be "under-valued"...And in any market, that almost always leads to profits.
2.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES...Books couldn't be happier that they are above .500 on the season and currently the 3rd most profitable team on the money-line in all of MLB...The reason books are happy is because the public continues to "auto-fade" this club like they did with great success in years past...So even though Wiseguys continue to profit by backing the Pirates, the public continues to bail books out by backing the other side on a nightly basis...As long as that continues, oddsmakers will be in no rush to adjust and we'll keep getting them at a discount.
3.) KANSAS CITY ROYALS...Bettors are waiting to see the same Royals they've gotten used to over the years but KC isn't cooperating...In fact, they've won 6 of their L/10 and have a +13 "Run Differential" on the season...They're in 2nd place in their division and if this team can improve their performance on the road, they'll continue to compete for the division...Unlike the Indians who will ultimately regress to the mean and not end up with a winning % near 70 when the season's over, the Royals aren't defying probability...Wiseguys continue to find profitable positions to back KC and the public continues to look to fade them...I see no reason oddsmakers won't keep offering them up at a discounted price.
4.) COLORADO ROCKIES...Currently in 1st place in the NL West and the only team in that division with a positive "Run Differential"...Although they've only turned a modest profit for bettors on the ML, I believe we have yet to see their true potential...For a team who has a very strong Home Field Edge, they're only 8-6 at Coors...I expect that to improve significantly and with it, they'll provide plenty of profit for backers since they're flying way under the radar and getting very little attention from bettors.
5.) ATLANTA HAWKS...Whether they're able to upset the Bulls and get to the Conference Finals, this team has made their backers a profit in the post-season...That is something they didn't do in the regular season and the main reason they continue to be under-valued...Bottom line, as I've said before...they get it done with defense and that usually keeps them in the game and leaves the back-door wide open...With the Bulls not being very "over-valued", the Hawks are only 2-2 ATS in this series...But if they are able to advance they'll be extremely under-valued in the next round.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.