VEGAS-RUNNER’S “VALUE TOP 10” LIST for WEEK of 6-7-11
The NBA Playoffs will be more than half way through by the end of tonight and we already identified the Heat as the “under-valued” team coming into the Finals. In fact, after betting them to win the series at the start, we also took another position on them at the adjusted series price when it was tied 1-1.
Without knowing the outcome of tonight’s Game 4, we can’t be certain which way the perception will influence the odds makers going forward. I believe that regardless of the outcome, the Heat should continue to offer betting value ahead.
In the NHL Playoffs the Bruins were able to win at home in Game 3 but the Canucks lead 2-1 in the Finals. We identified Vancouver as the “over-valued” team coming into the Finals but as bettors began to fade the sweep, we saw shift. The outcome of Game 4 will play a major factor in determining the public’s perception so we’ll wait to see what happens before labeling both teams.
That leaves us with MLB…Keep in mind that when the NBA & NHL Playoffs are finishes the MLB betting market will get more saturated with recreational bettors. Until then, books will continue to see mainly parlay wagers from the public and the majority of straight bets are coming from sharps.
Remember that odds makers will create prices by factoring in the bias of bettors. Since wise guy money outweighs public money in the MLB betting market at the moment, there is more that we must consider when identifying teams who are both, over & under valued.
When the public begins to bet more MLB on a daily basis, the odds makers will once again be forced to create lines that factor in that bias.
Looking ahead to this week’s MLB betting market, these are the teams that I’ve been able to isolate and identify as being offered at a discount or having a premium placed on them…
“5” MOST “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS in the MLB BETTING MARKET :
1.) CHICAGO CUBS…No team in MLB has lost more money for their backers this season…A $100 bettor is down over $1300 and with such a huge fan base, odds makers will continue to add a premium…They have the 2nd worse Run-Differential in MLB and are already 11.5 games back in the NL Central…The last time bettors made money backing the Cubs was in 2008.
2.) COLORADO ROCKIES…They have lost a $100 bettor over $1200 this season and only the Cubs have lost more…Their backers have only turned a profit 1 time since 2008 and even last year when they won more game overall than they lost, bettors lost money…They continue to attract public money at the betting window and as long as that’s the case, they’ll continue to be over-priced.
3.) BOSTON RED SOX…As long as odds makers continue to add a premium on the Red Sox it’ll be tough for bettors to profit backing them…They are 7 games above .500 and only 1 game out of 1st place in the AL East, but a $100 bettor is still down over a nickel backing them on the money-line…With all that pre-season hype and a huge fan base, they continue to remain in our Top 5 this year.
4.) CINCINNATI REDS…They came into 2011 off back to back profitable seasons…In 2010 they were the 2nd most profitable team on the money-line…Fortunately it takes some time for the betting market to catch up and become more efficient but eventually it does…In the Reds case, that’s what’s happened and even though they have a winning record and a +15 Run-Differential…they’re backers are down almost a nickel this season.
5.) LA ANGELS…No team won more money for their backers than the Angels did in 2008 and 2009...But it appears the market has caught up because they lost money for their supports in 2010 and are down so far in 2011...This is a .500 team at best and as long as odds makers add a premium, I don’t expect bettors to be able to make much money backing them.
“5” MOST “UNDER-VALUED” TEAMS in the MLB BETTING MARKET :
1.) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS…They are the most profitable team in the NL and 2nd most in all of MLB this season…A $100 bettor is up almost a dime backing them and with a +16 Run-Differential this team should continue to turn a profit as long as they’re offered at a discount…They’re only 1 game back in the NL West and should continue to challenge for the top spot.
2.) MILWAUKEE BREWERS…Very quietly they’ve climbed to only 1.5 games back in the NL Central and have a +23 Run-Differential…They were the sexy pick to win the World Series coming in but after a slow start, most lost confidence and the market under-valued them…This has allowed them to make a $100 bettor almost $700 this season and with so many other NL teams receiving the hype, they should stay under the radar.
3.) SEATTLE MARINERS…They are now only 2.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West but remain an after-thought in MLB this season…No team LOST more money for their backers in 2010 so it’s not surprising that odds makers would offer them up at a huge discount…They have a positive Run-Differential and even as a .500 team, bettors should be able to turn a profit backing them this season.
4.) SF GIANTS…It’s usually unheard of to have a World Series winner showing a profit the following season when only 8 games above .500...But they’re run in 2010 was such a shock that few bettors were willing to change their perception of them…They had losing seasons from 2005 thru 2008 and didn’t make the playoff with a winning season in 2009...I expect it to take a lot to change the perception of bettors and that should force odds makers to continue to offer them at a discount.
5.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES…Even at 2 games below .500 they’ve made a $100 bettor over a nickel of profit this season…Another team that will not be able to change the perception of bettors since they’ve been conditioned to fade them for so many years…That means they won’t even have to win more games than they lose to show a profit at season’s end and if they continue to stay around .500, that profit should be significant.