“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY APRIL 26th, 2011
Vegas-Runner’s NBA & MLB “VALUE TOP 10” LIST for WEEK of 4-26 thru 5-3 !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…It’s Tuesday, and that means it’s time to unveil this week’s “Value Top 10” list for NBA & MLB. Once again I will pass along those teams that I believe the betting market will be “over & under” valuing in the coming week.
Keep in mind that I am not advocating a bettor should “fade or bet” these teams in every situation, instead I am isolating those teams that I believe the odds makers will be adding a premium or discount on.
This means I will need to find a lot more supporting information and a bigger match-up edge to fade those “under-valued” teams or bet those “over-valued” teams. By knowing a premium or discount has shaded the point-spread/money-line, I’ll need to overcome that bias in order to profit.
The list is comprised from information personally gathered from various bookmakers, wise guys, handicappers, ect…then coupled with my own vast experience in analyzing the betting market.
Last week, we found many positions to profit from with the information provided and since launching, we’ve been able to successfully isolate plenty of “over & under valued” teams in MLB and the NBA Playoffs.
Finally, before we get to this week’s list…I highly recommend that each and every sports bettor create their own list each week. This is a must since we bet into a market and identifying those teams whom the odds makers are “over & under valuing” will go a long way in finding profitable positions.
With that said, please feel free to use my list as the foundation for your own. Pick and choose which teams you agree with and which you don’t. Then go ahead and add one’s that you feel the odds makers will be adding a premium on or discounting.
The beauty of the sports betting market-place is that each bettor will decide on value differently. It’s that decision that ultimately creates and shapes the market. So without further delay, let’s get to this week’s list of teams…
VEGAS-RUNNER’S NBA & MLB “VALUE TOP 10”
5 MOST “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS in the BETTING MARKETS :
1.) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
As dominating as they’ve looked in their 1st Round series against the Nuggets, the bottom line is the odds makers will be forced to add an even bigger premium to this “over-valued” team. The reason is simple…the Thunder went into the NBA Playoffs as the “sexy” team to represent the Western Conference in the Finals and that bandwagon has only grown since. During the Playoffs when the betting market is saturated with more unsophisticated bettors than ever before, “perception” plays an even bigger role in price. The perception is they have the pieces to dethrone the Lakers out West, therefore a seemingly “small-market” team will be attracting a heavy premium. This premium will start with the odds makers, but rest assured it’ll be continued by bookmakers who’ll be forced to adjust based on betting action. In an attempt to create balance, we should see some point-spreads that entice the wise guys who’ve had no problem backing dogs with success throughout the 1st Round.
2.) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Not surprisingly, we continue to find “over-valued” teams in the AL Central. The reason for this has been the meteoric rise of the Royals & Indians from last season. Because of this, betting teams like the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox will come with a premium. Let’s face it, those are the 3 teams we all expected to see battling for the division and many bettors still expect that to be the case. Bottom line, the Chi Sox have cost a $100 bettor almost -$600 on the money-line and with a run-differential of -14 they find themselves in the AL Central basement. Even so, bookmakers continue to receive public money on the White Sox daily. This team don’t appear to be in any position to make a turn-around quickly. They lack offense, defense, and pitching. In fact, they are 18th in Runs Per Game, 24th in Errors, 18th in ERA, and 20th in WHIP. That looks like the recipe for a very long summer and yet, the betting market has yet to catch up.
3.) LA DODGERS
Once again, no “over-valued” list is complete without at least 1 team from LA. Once again, I’ve chosen the Dodgers to represent the city of angels and here’s why…Even though they find themselves .500 for the season and more or less at break even for a $100 bettor backing them on the money-line this season, they have a run-differential of -15. Only 3 teams in the entire NL have a worse ratio and yet bookmakers report the Dodgers continue to attract a ton of public money almost game. Here is another team with problems everywhere. They rank 20th in Runs Per Game, 19th in Errors, 24th in ERA, and 25th in WHIP. Still, the betting market has been slow to adjust like it usually is. But why shouldn’t it ? The bookmakers aren’t complaining so there’s no reason for odds makers to rush to make changes.
4.) MIAMI HEAT
The Heat haven’t done bookmakers or bettors any real favor so far by going 2-2 ATS in their 1st Round Series against the Sixers. For the entire season, the Heat find themselves 1 game below .500 ATS meaning they’ve cost bettors only a little more than vig. That’s just not a good enough job by odds makers for such a “public” team. With it’s cast of superstars and being the odds-on favorite to win the NBA Championship when the season tipped-off, there is no doubt they’ve received a lot of backing from bettors at the counter. So bookmakers would have definitely preferred a much worse ATS mark from the Heat. I believe a heavier premium will be charged to back Miami as the Playoffs progress. Sure, the size of the premium will depend on their opponents. None the less, there won’t be much line-value the rest of the way.
5.) TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Rays got off to a dismal start this season but they’ve since been able to climb the ladder and currently find themselves only 2.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. They’ve won 7 of their L/10 games and are close to the break-even mark on the money-line for a $100 bettor. Even so, I feel the betting market is on the verge of “over-valuing” this club and odds makers won’t be shy to charge a premium. They currently have a run-differential of -5 for the season, a worse ratio than 2 of the 3 teams below them in the AL East standings. That’s a reflection of why a $100 bettor has lost over $550 backing them on the run-line. To say the Rays offense is struggling would be a huge understatement. They are currently ranked 26th in Runs Scored, Batting Average, and OPS. I always state that the true measure of any MLB team is their ratio of “runs scored” to “runs allowed”. So even with quality pitching they’ll need to manufacture runs to win more ball games. If and when that happens, the Rays may be worth backing. But right now they are just another “over-valued” team whose jersey attracts a lot of public money.
5 MOST “UNDER-VALUED” TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) ATLANTA HAWKS
The Hawks made my “under-valued” list as we approached the NBA Playoffs and the betting market has continued to overlook this club. With teams like the Heat, Bulls, & Celtics in the Eastern Conference, it’s no wonder why the Hawks are being offered at such a huge discount by odds makers. They’ve covered all 4 Playoff games vs. Orlando to date and 8 straight in this series. But so far that’s been an ATS streak that has not hurt the odds makers #1 clients, the bookmakers. This is why I believe the Hawks will continue to find themselves “under-valued” in the betting market and as long as bettors continue to disregard them as any real threat to either of the big 3 in the East…sharp bettors will continue to cash tickets backing the Hawks. Remember, this team came into the post-season 7 games below .500 ATS at the conclusion of the regular season so not too many bettors made money backing them. That “perception” coupled with their non-exciting style of play is exactly why they’ve offered value in the playoffs and why I believe the betting market may not ever catch up.
2.) FLORIDA MARLINS
Very quietly the Marlins have gotten to within ½ a game in the NL East behind Phila. As long as the Phillies continue to be the favorites to win the World Series, Florida will offer up plenty of betting value. A $100 bettor is up over $600 backing them on the money-line and up over a nickel on the run-line. The Marlins have a +15 run-differential and are getting it done on the road, not just at home. More importantly they combine amazing pitching with efficient offense, giving them the chance to beat teams a number of different ways. The Marlins are ranked #4 in ERA and an even more impressive and important #2 in WHIP. Offensively they are 10th in Batting Average and 10th in OPS, which points to an eventual improvement on their #14 ranking in Runs Per Game. This team is extremely dangerous and bookmakers agree they don’t receive much attention at the betting windows. That’s exactly what we value bettors like hearing because a great team that’s flying under the radar means we’ll continue to get them at a discount.
3.) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Wow, if I told you at the All-Star Break that the Memphis Grizzlies would be 1 win away from knocking the Spurs out of the post-season you would probably ask for a drug-test. But that’s exactly where the Grizzlies stand after beating the Spurs last night to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the 1st Round. Even though historically road teams in this position do very poorly in Game 5, those same road teams have gone on to win the series 80% (8-2) of the time in the 1st Round of the NBA Playoffs. If these Grizzlies are able to do what history tells us they should, they’ll surely be “under-valued” in the next round, and any that proceed it. Here’s why, bookmakers report the Spurs continue to receive heavy support from recreational bettors. So even though wise guys have been able to exploit that fact, there’s no rush from odds makers to make any adjustment since public money out-weighs wise guy money throughout the post-season. Bottom line, this team will not get any respect from the betting public and therefore odds makers won’t give them any either.
4.) COLORADO ROCKIES
Currently the best in the west and tied with the Phillies for the best record in all of baseball. In fact, a $100 bettor has made more money backing the Rockies on the money-line than those same Phils. As long as they continue to be perceived by the public as a team that can’t be trusted away from Coors Field, that trend will continue. But in the early going of the 2011 season nothing could be further from the truth. The Rockies are actually only 6-4 at home compared to an impressive and profitable 9-3 (.750) on the road. That 9-3 road mark is the best in MLB and with a run differential of +22 they are not getting lucky, they are actually very good. What I like best is the fact they are ranked #24 in Batting Average. That’s because BA’s the main offensive statistic that most recreational bettors wrongly put the most emphasis on. The Rockies are 6th in Runs Per Game and 14th in OPS which tells a very different story of how efficient this offense truly is. Couple that with a Top 15 pitching staff whose stats are skewed due to pitching at Coors and this is a complete ball club. With the defending World Series Champs and the LA Dodgers in the same division, I expect public perception will allow us to continue receiving value on Colorado.
5.) LA ANGELS
The Angels made our “under-valued” list before and they’ve made it again. Why not, they’ve made a $100 bettor over +$300 on the money-line and after being swept at home by the Red Sox this past weekend, the betting market won’t be in any rush to give them respect. More importantly, they find themselves in the same division with the Texas Rangers, and in the same League as teams like the Yankees and Red Sox. Because of that, they will continue to be an after-thought in the AL. That’s just fine by me because this is a team with a +10 run-differential and one of the very best pitching staffs in all of MLB. In fact, that pitching staff has had to carry the bulk of the load but the data supports this offense should start to come around soon. Although they are ranked #22 in Runs Scored, they are #15 in BA & OPS and #6 in Home Runs. Finally, after having a down season in 2010 they have the kind of manager that players will give 100% for. That’s exactly the type of effort I’m looking for in my “under-valued” teams and a quality that is usually under estimated in the MLB betting market.
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck ahead. Vegas-Runner.