VEGAS-RUNNER’S “VALUE TOP 10” LIST + MONEY-METER….for MLB, CFB, & NFL !!
We’ve seen just how difficult it is to make money when wagering on over-valued teams in MLB especially when those teams have a ton of pressure on them. In fact, most of the books I use as sources claim the last 2 weeks have been extremely profitable even though volume is low.
The reason is simple, recreational bettors chase with “must win” teams and pay an inflated price to do so. Over the final few days we can expect those “must win” teams to be over-inflated and offer up no true value.
In CFB and NFL the odds makers have tried to cash in on “perception” built over the first few games that they feel will be unsustainable. Remember, it’s not only the teams that looked good that I’m referring to. Instead, it’s also the teams that have also looked horrific.
Teams like the Chiefs and Colts proved that the point-spread is always the great equalizer in the betting market, while teams like Boise St. showed us there’s some numbers that even exceptional teams can’t cover.
Now that teams have played a couple of games it’s time to use data to help uncover where the true value lies and not simply base it on expectations. We can also use the perception surrounding certain teams to really take advantage of situations where the price reflects a “fair line” rather than a “true line”.
With that, let’s look at the teams the betting market has valued incorrectly and those that are being offered at a discount or an inflated price…
TOP “5” OVER-VALUED TEAMS :
1.) RAYS, RED SOX, BRAVES, & CARDINALS
All 4 are in “must win” situations each and every game if they want to extend their seasons and get into the Playoffs. Therefore, odds makers will look to protect the books by sending them out inflated and with so much added pressure they offer even less value. Below those 4 are the Rangers and Tigers who are trying to close the 2nd spot in the AL but they won’t be nearly as inflated as the ones mentioned.
2.) DETROIT LIONS
Odds makers sent them out inflated last week at -3.5 and sharps immediately bet against them. But with public money outweighing wise guy money in the NFL, books were left extremely exposed on Detroit by kick-off. Bottom line, plenty of bettors that backed them and shopped for the best price ended up with a push and odds makers know they’ll be looking to bet them again.
3.) BUFFALO BILLS
Yes, for the first time since Jim Kelly was handing the ball off to Thurman Thomas the Bills have become an over-valued team. After beating the Patriots their stock is as high as it’s ever been. That’s reflected in the fact they are a 3 pt road fav in week 4 after Cantor Gaming had them listed as a 4.5 pt dog in this game prior to the season.
4.) GREEN BAY PACKERS
It’s never a good thing for the books when the Super Bowl Champs are covering numbers because they’ll almost always attract a lot of backing at the betting windows from the public. The offense has produced the 3rd most points in the NFC so far and bettors love offense so look for odds makers to try and protect the books by continuing to inflate the price on the Packers.
The Cornhuskers are ranked in the Top 10 of the USA Today & AP Polls but most sharps I spoke with don’t even have them in their top 15. Because of their ranking in the polls they’ve been sent out with a premium attached and have responded by going 1-3 ATS even though they’re 4-0 SU. As the schedule gets tougher look for them to be exposed and eventually drop in the polls to reflect what sharps already know.
TOP “5” UNDER-VALUED TEAMS :
1.) DODGERS, NATIONALS, INDIANS, & BLUE JAYS
None of these teams will be playing in the post-season and most have known that for a long while. But now that the season is coming to a close these teams actually DO have something to play for. What they are playing for now may not seem important to fans and bettors but it’s important to these teams…and that’s to end the season ABOVE .500 overall. With all 4 hovering around that win percentage, look for them to play hard to finish the season as a winning team and have something to build on for next year
2.) ST LOUIS RAMS
They came into the season considered the sexy pick to win a weak NFC West division but showed early on they‘re still too young to make such a big stride. Now that they’re 0-3 SU and dealing with some key injures they are no longer in that conversation and bettors will be looking to fade them. With an 0-3 ATS record look for odds makers to send them out at a huge discount, making them the value side.
3.) MIAMI DOLPHINS
Being in such a tough division they weren’t expected to compete for the top spot. But they also weren’t expected to be this bad either. Losing to the Browns without Peyton Hillis sent their stock crashing and that’s usually when it’s time to buy. As the defense improves and the price is greatly discounted the Fins will provide some profitable spots ahead, especially at home where they are desperate for a win.
4.) SD CHARGERS
Yes, the Chargers are under-valued at the moment because of their 0-3 ATS mark and the fact they barely got past a bad Chiefs team. With the reputation of playing down to their competition and starting the season slow, odds makers will send them out discounted and that’s when a quality team can cash some tickets. If not for mistakes inside the red-zone at NE this team would be 3-0 SU and over-valued. But that loss, coupled with having trouble against the Viks and Chiefs make them a “play-on” team.
With teams like Alabama, LSU, and even Florida the Razorbacks will continue to be an afterthought in the SEC. And after a loss on national TV to Bama where the final score reflected a blow-out, the pollsters dropped them down to the #18 spot. Most sharps I spoke to still have them Top 10 in “power-ratings” and that says the public perception is wrong. Teams will almost always offer value when that’s the case and this team should be no different.
MLB BETTING MARKET = 70% SHARP / 30% PUBLIC
This is the reason we’re not seeing as many line-moves as usual since odds makers are sending out a lot of “true lines”. More importantly, the majority of public money is in parlays since prices are so high and not many are willing to lay -200 or higher on straight bets. Until the playoffs, this market will stay saturated with sharp money.
CFB BETTING MARKET = 65% PUBLIC / 35% SHARP
On prime-time games this ratio is even higher as public money outweighs sharp money in those match-ups. But with so many smaller conferences and totals being offered each week, the betting syndicates and professional bettors look to take advantage of some weak numbers. Majority of 1st & 2nd half money also comes from sharps who many times are simply working middles.
NFL BETTING MARKET = 75% PUBLIC / 25% SHARP
This ratio is why there are more “fair lines” in NFL than any other sport. Odds makers are well aware that sharp money won’t nearly be enough to offset public money when a position is one-sided, so they look to capitalize on bettors biases by inflating sides and totals to give books the best of it when that’s the case. Even with plenty of betting syndicates trying to take advantage of opportunities available with certain parlays and teasers, the exotics market’s ratio of public money wagered is even higher.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.