*** Fellas, I had planned on doing a Video for this Fight from my home since I couldn't get to Pregame yesterday like planned because I went to Primm for another ShowBox event...I was asked to write an article on those fights that's due on Monday and also break down tonight's fight with a recommendation by this afternoon...So I decided that I would use today's Morning Moves Newsletter to cover tonight's fight and I'll share that with you below...Please keep in mind that this is the unedited version...lol, so grammer & spelling may not be perfect...VR ***
"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for SATURDAY MAY 14th, 2011
SHOWTIME BOXING's SUPER 6 TOURNAMENT....ARTHUR ABRAHAM vs ANDRE WARD !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...Last night I had the privilage of attending the ShowBox fights from Primm Nevada as an "invited guest"...That usually means I'm getting my casino host to give me a VIP Pass/Access for my play...but not this time...Instead, I received my very first "Media Pass" to see the fights...
I have to tell you that I thought it don't get much better than a VIP Pass because seats and service were amazing...But there is no better way to go watch fights live than with a media pass because of the access it affords you...
You can literally walk around anywhere you please before, during, and after the fights without anyone hindering you...Fighters, promoters, trainers, ect give you access and actually are hoping you have a question for them or want to take a picture...
Now I'm sure at "mega-fights" it's a lot different and you probably need to build your rep to get that kind of respect...But at a smaller venue like last night, even though it was my first time covering a fight as media, the access was incredible,,,
I got a chance to talk boxing with Floyd Sr and Zab Judah...And got invited by Judah's promoter/trainer to come watch him train here in Vegas at the gym he works out at and to do a story on him and some other fighters in that camp...
So as you can see, I'm pretty excited and really am looking forward to getting better connected in the fight game...Truth be told, the entire time I was thinking of ways that this can help me at the betting window...Since I get to cover the gaming aspect of Boxing, I'm hoping to be able to deliver and share some really good insight and information in the future...
Tonight we get an excellent fight that airs after the replay of Mosley/Pacquiao on Showtime between Abraham and Ward. This is the next round of the Super 6 Middle-Weight Tournament that's been taking place for a while and has produced some really good boxing.
The field is down to 4 fighters and tonight's match-up involves the 2 favorites going into the tournament. But after the way it's shaped up so far, the lesser of those 2 favorites is now the overwhelming choice while the other is now a long-shot.
ANDRE WARD -600 / ARTHUR ABRAHAM +400...OVER/UNDER 10.5 (Over-125)...
The Total obviously differs from shop to shop much more than the money-line and it's obvious that regardless of the book, the Over is a huge favorite in this one. Oddsmakers expect this fight to go to a decsion based soley on the fact they believe Ward will win.
I say this because my break-down supports that for Abraham to win this fight, he'll have to score a KO. Ward is the much better boxer and if this becomes a technical fight, he'll be able to coast to a decision.
Abraham's history supports this and in his 32 wins, 26 have come by KO. On the other hand, Ward has had 13 KO's in his 23 wins and those came against much lesser competition.
Styles make fights and so far Abraham has had trouble against fighters who stay away from him and force him to come in where he's most comfortable and effective. We saw this against Dirrell and Froch who gave him his only losses, both coming in this tournament.
More importantly, those fights seemed to have taken out much of the swagger that made Abraham such a worthy and exciting opponent. It feels like forever since we watched him beat Edison Miranda even after suffering a broken jaw early in the fight.
Many actually thought Abraham would make an excuse and pull out of the tournament after those two loses, so I wonder if conclusions haven't been made prematurely on his lack of drive. The odds of +400 on the take-back surely reflect that not to be the case, but I caution bettors because so far, 2011 has provided plenty of upsets and if you go back to when this tournament began...not many would have made Abraham such a big dog, and possibly even a slight favorite.
The Super 6 Tournament has proven to be a true challenge as we've witnessed 3 of the 4 middleweights who came in undefeated, get their first loss. That goes to prove that way too many fighters are willing to pad their records against weak competition rather than fight the very best like these men are doing.
That one fighter who remains without a loss and has now become the favorite to unify the titles and win the tournament is Andre Ward. The former Olympic Gold Medal winner looked awesome in beating Mikkel Kessler who was the former "unified" Super Middleweight Champion.
In watching the fight again in preparation for Saturday's match-up, I saw that Ward has no problem coming forward and fighting on the inside. He is a boxer first but isn't afraid to mix it up. Ward appears to focus on systematically breaking down in opponent by working the body before going upstairs.
Against Abraham, he should get the chance to emoploy that same strategy but he has to be cautious because it's inside where the former IBF Middleweight Title holder has his best opportunity to land the big shot.
The problems I forsee are first and foremost...a lack of defense from Abraham which should allow Ward to score with ease. Next, I'm not exactly sure that Abraham will want to turn this into a brawl because of how well Ward handled that approach from Kessler. Finally, with Ward's ability and desire to go to the body first...he will definitely weaken Abraham's punching power as the fight goes into deeper waters.
So it appears to me that Ward will in deed remain undefeated and not get that first loss like we've seen a handful of big names get in 2011 to date. As long as he fights smart and remains patient he should be able to stay out of harms way and avoid taking the big shot that Abraham will be looking to land.
In closing, although one would think this should be an easy night for Ward and therefore laying the heavy chalk warrented since a return on investment will come within 30 or so minutes, I do not see much value there at all.
Granted, I'm one who always claims to be willing to lay -900 if the true-odds are closer to -1200, so it's not the asking price that turns me off. Instead, it's the "probability" that does.
Yes, I expect Ward to get the victory and continue on as the favorite to win this tournament. But, I don't believe the probability of that happening reflects the price that books are offering. In fact, I took a really close look at the +400 on Abraham and if the "hold" on boxing money-lines when they get this high were more in the bettor's favor...I may very well had taken a shot with the Dog.
My recommendation is to Pass on this fight as far as wagering is concerned. Instead, I think we can use this fight to uncover a lot of valuable information going forward with both fighters. The bottom line is that as a sports bettor, one of our biggest advantages over the books is our ability to pass and choose positions to wager on. This allows us to wait for those that offer the most betting value and gives us the best of it.
So enjoy the fight as I know I will and let's see what we can learn to help us proft in the future...
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.