Allright fellas, it's New Year's Day and I'd like to wish you all a very Happy & Healthy New Year ahead...With nothing but enjoyment, and prosperity for you and your family...I got up real early this morning...and am looking forward to watching some Bowl Games before getting ready for the Weekend ahead and getting some rest as well...But I promised you that I would make sure to take the time out...to gather the information on "Early Moves" and get them out in a Blog...Because the Final Week of the NFL Season is like no other, and I know that you were looking forward to my "TRUE STEAM" for Week 17...
And there was just no way that I was going to let you down...Especially since you have all shown nothing but support throughout the entire football season...I know how much you look forward to the information, and I know that many use it for their own handicapping...So for that, I'm honored...And I will continue to try and pass along the most "accurate" information about the betting market that I possibly can...
What I decided to do for the Final Week...since it is just so much different than any other...Is go over "ALL" of the "Early Moves"...and define them for you...So that you can know for sure, what's behind the "Line Move" to date...Then you can monitor them from here on out, and draw your conclusions much easier...
You have to realize that the oddsmakers adjust for "Must Win" situations...And that don't mean those MustWins won't cover...But you do have to know going in that you are not getting any "Line Value"...And instead you are getting the worst of it because you are paying a premium for that "Must Win" team...
Many times, these situations are what's behind the "Line Moves"...And other times, the "Moves" are based on what the sportsbooks have pending...And more importantly, other times it's based on the fact the "Playoff Picture" changes as earlier games go final...And other times, it's based on weather, injury, ect...And finally, it's many times due to "Steam"...
So I won't isolate a "Best Bet" for this week...Because I like to wait until game-day to finalize my positions...But I will go ahead and let you know what "Early Moves" are "TRUE STEAM"...and which aren't...VR
(Because we are doing EVERY game...I will get to the bottom line, and indentify/define the "move"...Rather than analyze how the Wiseguys took their positions, and how the sportsbooks then reacted...like we usually do, since they aren't all "Steam")
NFL WEEK 17 : "LINE MOVES"
1.) IND at BUF = The Wiseguys Steamed the BILLS -6 as soon as the line came out, all the way UP to -9...They also Steamed the UNDER...Books so far say that the "Betting Public" is going the other way on BOTH, the Side & Total...Taking Indy & Over...And that money just may out-weigh the Wiseguy money as we approach kick-off.
2.) NO at CAR = It's "FRIDAY" and the books aren't willing to put up a Betting Line, not even in a "Circle"...That shows how fearful they are of the Wiseguys...and how little confidence they have in their oddsmakers.
3.) JAX at CLE = The line opened -2.5, and this "move" is based on "air" and not money....Looks like the books are trying to stay ahead of the anticipated heavy "Public Money" that will be bet on JAX...Because the Wiseguys left it alone when it opened, and I haven't heard of any group behind that move...The Total is another story, the Wiseguys Steamed the UNDER...while the :Public" is expected to go Over.
4.) PHI at DAL = Wiseguys have not attempted to take any position...There has not been any opportunity to lay -2.5 or take +3.5, so they will probably sit this out...We may see the "Vig" move, but this shouldn't come off the "Key Number" or "3"...Looks like the "Public" like the Philly side, even on the ML...according to some books...The Wiseguys went UNDER immediately, but the books expect to get balance because they expect the "Public Money" will come in on the Over.
5.) CHI at DET = This is an example of the Wiseguys just letting the books know that this line should be "3"...Because they were willing to lay -2.5, but that's NOT Steam...That's just a "Value Bet" that they will make...And if they saw any 3.5's, then they would have grabbed that also...The books don't want to go there but they are expecting to get a lot of pressure from "Public Money" as game-day approaches and we just may see it...The Total hasn't moved at all.
6.) NE at HOU = The Wiseguys were willing to lay the "Key Number" of "7"...after they laid -6.5, where they could fine it with the TEXANS...This shows you just how much respect they demand, because the "Public" is expected to come in heavy on the Pats...No real move on the Total, just a slight 1/2 pt adjustment upwards...Which I'm sure is based on "anticipated action" more than anything else.
7.) PIT at MIA = "No Move" by the Wiseguys for this game...But the "Public" has forced the books to adjust the "Vig" on the Steelers...And that "Public Money" is expected to continue coming in on the Steelers...The most we should see is more "Vig", because if they come off of "3"...the Wiseguys will be tempted to get involved..."No Move" on the Total.
8.) NYG at MIN = The "Public Money" is expected to come in on the Dog (NYG) and Over...The Wiseguys haven't gotten invloved at all, and the books have not had to adjust their "Opening Numbers".
9.) CIN at NYJ = The Wiseguys Steamed the "Key Number" of "7"...And then from there, came back and Steamed the NY JETS again and have forced the books to adjust all the way up to "10"...Even though they expect the "Public" to back the Bengals..."Middle Opportunity" is there for the taking...I'm interested to see if the Outfits take it...The Wiseguys also Steamed the UNDER, which will balance the books because the "Public" is expected to bet Over...Again though, the books adjusted the Total for that Steam.
10.) SF at STL = The books have not had to make any adjustments, to the Side or Total for this game...The Wiseguys haven't looked to take any positions, and since it's on the "Key Number" of "7"...the books should only have to adjust the "Vig" for any "Public Money", which is expected to come in on the 49ers...The Total isn't getting much action at all, and has yet to move off the "Opener".
11.) ATL at TB = The sportsbooks are going to be forced to take a "Position" on this game...and even gave up a "Middle" attempt, to the Outfits...who have ATL +1 and TBAY +3...Their main "Position" is on ATL, and with the "Public" expected to bet ATL too...the sportsbooks will be forced to hope that the oddsmakers were right...There hasn't been much movement on the Total, but the books are expecting Over money which is why we've seen a 1/2 Pt move.
12.) GB at ARZ = The books have come off the "Key Number" of "3"...and gone to -3.5 on the Cards...But if you look closely, you will notice that the "Vig" was already adjusted on "3"...And now it's been adjusted on "3.5" also...This assures us that it's not "Steam"...And the books that I spoke with all expect to need the Arizona side on Sunday...The Wiseguys have "Steamed" the UNDER, which forced the adjustment downwards on the Total...even though the "Public" will be on the Over.
13.) KC at DEN = The Wiseguys have worked a "Middle" on this game, and do not have a "True Position"...In fact, what they did was lay -11 on DEN, then take +13 on KC...And it will sit at 12 for now at most shops because the Outfits got off the game...The "Public" is expected to take the points with KC for this game...The Outfits also bet some UNDER 39, but stopped when it got to the "Key Number" of 38..."Public" is expected to bet Over.
14.) BAL at OAK = The books will be forced to take a position again because the Wiseguys and the "Public" are on the RAVENS...The books have adjusted some, but don't be surprised if they "move" it some more...They are going to want to defend the "Middle" as long as possible but more Ravens pressure will force them to open up...No "Move" on the Total.
15.) WAS at SD = The books just hung up a bad number here...Because they rushed to lower it all the way from as high as "8"...all the way to a low of "3"...With the Wiseguys buying up REDSKINS the whole way...To add insult to injury, they then came back and laid -3 for some money on SD...trying to nail a "Middle"...The books are hoping that the "Public" can bail them out some, if they bet SD as expected...The Outfits also "Steamed" the UNDER.
16.) TEN at SEA = The Wiseguys "Steamed" the Dog (SEA) +5.5 and then again at +4.5...which is why we are now looking at a line of 4...The books expect the "Public" will bail them out by betting Tenn on Sunday, but they will be forced to take a "Position" on the Total...Because the Outfits and the "Public" is on the OVER...And the line's gone from 43.5 to 45 already.
There you are fellas...All 16 NFL Match-Ups for the Final Week of the Regular Season...
We have had an incredibly successful NFL Season...Being RANKED #1 or #2 for a huge portion of it, and currently #2 going into the Final Week...
The "TRUE STEAM" has also been extremely successful...and I look forward to continuing throughout 2010...
Thanks again for your support, and I hope you like what I decided to do for Week 17's "TRUE STEAM" Blog...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.