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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

Morning Moves Newsletter..CFB/NFL Early Moves & Key Injuries !!

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...Yesterday's leans didn't do well but when we stepped up and pulled the trigger, we ended up sweeping the Premium Plays and it appears taking the night off on Tuesday paid dividends...The key is to focus on what's ahead rather than the past so we'll simply look to keep the momentum and work on going into the huge weekend ahead off a couple winning nights...I went ahead and posted an article that was written by one of FOX Sports journalists who reached out for some market analysis and it looks like I'll be providing that to him weekly...Since he's using a couple of different sources and edits the info I send, I wanted to pass along the unedited version to subscribers because it's packed with info...Below is the information that I provided early in the week on CFB and NFL that covers what happened as soon as lines went up, and also some of the key injuries that sharps are keeping an eye on...Best of Luck, VR


NFL TOTALS (Over/Under) :
Oddsmakers & Sharp Bettors expected the new "kick-off" rule to produce lower scoring games in the NFL.
In Week 1 only 4 game totals opened higher than 41. The majority of adjustments forced on the books by sharps was to the Under. Knowing totals are usually shaded to the Over based on the bias of recreational bettors, betting syndicates steamed a lot of Unders and got beat while recreational (public) bettors cashed a lot of tickets on totals.
In Week 2 only 5 game totals were opened lower than 41. Sharps will see that as an over-reaction based on ONLY one week of football and should bet plenty of Unders late in the week, after the public money forced books to raise them even higher.
NFL SIDES (Biggest Moves) :
1.) RAVENS...opened -4 and bet up to -6...Wiseguys getting ahead of the public who will definitely be on Balt heavy come game-day after the way they dismantled the Steelers. Expect a middle attempt from sharps if books get to 7...Teams never do well the week after they play the Steelers because game is so taxing physically.
2.) BROWNS...opened -3 and bet down to -1.5...Obviously sharps believe Colts are under-valued after week 1 performance. With public money expected on Cle., rather than wait for the possibility they may drive the line higher...nobody wanted to be left out so there was a rush to take the points on home dog.
3.) EAGLES...opened -1.5 and bet up to -3...This line was being offered back in August at Hilton Super Book (offered lines on season's marquee games at lower limits) at Falcons -2.5...So we are looking at a move of almost 6 pts from bookmakers based on 60 min of football from both teams. Sharps got ahead of the public who will definitely be on Philly and will be looking to work a middle with Falcons +3.5 or better late.
4.) STEELERS...opened -13 and bet up to 14...Pitt will get heavy public money especially on teaser bets expecting them to extract revenge for week 1 embarassment. Sharps almost always take double-digit dogs in NFL so don't be surprised to see late steam on the dog when public forces it to go higher.
5.) DALLAS...opened -3 this week and still at -3...BUT, on those Hilton lines I touched on above the Cowboys were offered at -1.5 so there was an adjustment made that most bettors will be unaware of.
6.) OVER ARZ/WAS...opened 42 and now 44...Initial move was to the under and books dropped the price by 1/2 point, but that's when betting syndicates came in to steam the Over and continue betting into it until books got to 44...Public should be on the Over also which should drive the line even higher and it's at 45.5 or higher that some sharps who got down early will look to attempt a middle.
NFL KEY INJURIES : Games with Injuries that will DEFINITELY influence the line will be put in a "circle" which means the limits books will take are very low..Most betting syndicates won't tip their hand on lower limits.
ATL : Center Todd McClure...Inactive in Week 1 and Questionable in Week 2...For team that loves to run the football, if he does play we should see sharps react.
CIN : QB Andy Dalton...Listed as Questionable and based on lack of line-move, sharps expect him to play.
DAL : CB Mike Jenkins...Listed as Probable but if that gets down-graded sharps should look to fade Dallas who already has CB Terrence Newman listed as Questionable...That may also effect the Total by having sharps bet Over.
DEN : RB Knowshon Moreno...Listed as probable but sharps keeping close eye on this one.
HOU : RB Arian Foster...Listed as questionable and will definitely influence the line if he gets upgraded, especially with RB Derrick Ward also listed as questionable.
NO : WR Lance Moore...Listed as questionable and after losing WR Marques Colston till October, his availability is being monitored closely.
NYG : DE's Osi Umenyiora & Justin Tuck...BOTH listed as questionable and will influence line for game & total if they get upgraded.
SD : WR Patrick Crayton...Listed as questionable and didn't play in week 1...Shouldn't effect line much even though it'll be huge for SD if he plays.
STL : QB Sam Bradford...Listed as probable and books holding off line until they confirm he'll play...RB Steven Jackson...Listed as doubtful and is another reason not to rush offering a line because it'll be opened with him expected OUT.
In first 2 weeks we saw the betting public get down heavy on EVERY big favorite in the -20 and up range...Betting syndicates know this will be the case and many times will bet those teams when line opens, like they do with TOP Ranked teams, knowing they'll have a big middle at game-time.
In Week 3 we aren't seeing that as sharps seem to agree oddsmakers have over-adjusted so they've stepped up to steam the DOG in a lot of games.
1.) WEST VIRGINIA...opened +2 and down to PK...Golden Nugget actually opened W Virginia at -4 back in July so there seems to be a difference in opinion from then and this line should continue moving...most likely in different directions until it settles.
2.) TEMPLE...opened +12.5 and bet down to +8...sharps believe Penn St will be down after a huge loss to Bama...tough to get up for Temple.
3.) BOWLING GREEN...opened -6.5 and bet up to -8.5...most sharps expect this line to climb some more.
4.) NORTH CAROLINA...opened -8.5 and bet up to -10...sharps getting ahead of public who will definitely be on NC.
5.) VANDI...opened PK and bet up to MISS -2...This line should climb more but books will be cautious not to get to key number of 3.
6.) NEBRASKA...opened -18.5 and bet down to -16.5...Wiseguys feel NEB is over-rated and most don't even have them in their Top 15.
7.) KENTUCKY...opened -8 and bet down to -6.5...With books being willing to go through the key number of 7, they took some heavy steam from betting syndicates.
8.) OKLA ST...opened -11.5 and bet up to -13.5...Sharps got ahead of public who will be on OK St heavy on game-day...this line should keep climbing...Back in July at Golden Nugget it was offered at "-7" !!
*** Subscribers please check the system at Final Update (6:30pm est) for Tonight's Premium Play ***

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