Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs

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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    06/08/2017 10:19 AM

Mon CBB "True Steam"..Trying To Stay PERFECT !!

Allright fellas...we are a PERFECT "3-0" on CBB "TRUE STEAM" Bets...And tonight, we are going to put that little run on the line with another "Early Move"...

This is the time of the season, where the books begin to adjust the way they factor "Public Perception" into the "Line"...Because with the NFL Season over...and just a handful of Bowl Games left...we will begin seeing more and more recreational bettors, move over to basketball...

And for some reason or other...it just seems that bettors prefer CBB so much more than they do the NBA...At least until the Playoffs get here...

So we should begin to see some real "Value" as this adjustment takes place...over the next few weeks...

After looking at Monday's board...it appears to me that the oddsmakers/bookmakers have already begun adjusting...

And we will look to stay PERFECT in CBB...with another ISOLATED BET...Which should also make my Premium Card tonight...VR

 

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Monday 1-4-10 :

1.) CS NORTHRIDGE opened -1....Now -1.5/-2

This is one of those moves that most bettors will miss as being a "Steam Play"...because the "line move" isn't that significant, and more importantly...after going up, we saw it come back down...And I'm going to tell you why in a moment, but first...let me just add that I made my "TRUE LINE" for this game CSN -3...So I was glad to see that some of the Outfits agreed with that number, and went ahead and "Steamed" CSN as soon as the line went up...But here is where this one gets a bit tricky...

The first thing you need to realize is that there are a handful of Betting Syndicates who not only bet big money...but more importantly, have a reputation for winning...And although many times, these Syndicates have similar opinions...there are other times that they don't...And this is one of those times...

Because this "line move" was not an attempt at a "middle"...Nor are those Outfits who laid -1 & -2 with CSN trying to "Buy-Back" and get off the game...In fact, they went ahead and took an even bigger position...after being challenged by other Wiseguys on this bet...

So what happend was that after a few of the Outfits went ahead and "Steamed" CSN...And forced the adjustment up to -2.5 and even -3...there was another Outfit or two, that saw "Value" on UC Davis...And they bought up all the +3 & +2.5 that they could get their hands on...

This move forced the books to re-adjust this line all the way down to -1.5 and even -1 again, not sure what was going on...And those Outfits that laid the points with CSN to begin with, then came back and took another position on CSN and forced it back up to -2 & -2.5...Which is when we saw the others come back and take the points again...

Many times when this happens, I will simply pass...But other times, just like for this one...I will instead follow my own Ratings, especially when they are supported by one of the Outfits who is kicking ass at the present time...And in this case, one of the winningest Outfits in CBB for the last 3-5 years, is the one who bet all that CSN money at the start, and came back for more...

And we have seen those bets get more respect from the books...even though they expect the Public to come in on the Dog...VR

 

LINE PREDICTION : Like I said, the books expect the public to come in on UC Davis...Since they are home, have the better record, and are a dog...But I don't think that this game, especially with CFB going on tonight...will end up getting enough "volume" from the public bettors, to minimize some of the liability the books will have on CSN...Which is why we should see this line get to -2, if not higher as we approach game-time...With that said, those Outfits that like UCD may decide to increase their position...in which case we would see a drop...

Bottom Line...if you agree with myself and the Outfits that backed CSN...then I would go ahead and lay -1.5 now...But if you disagree, and like the UCD side...then you may want to wait and try to get better than +2...

Myself, I'm going to trust my Ratings...and side with the Wiseguys who are doing the most Damage in CBB at the moment...\

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.

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