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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

How To: POWER-RATING OFFENSE in MLB

The football season is definately upon us, so I thought it would be an excellent idea to look into ways bettors can take advantage of baseball...because as the oddsmakers attention is focused more and more on football, since obviously it is their clients biggest handle...the opportunities to step up and exploit the weak money-lines that will be posted can be plenty. And from experience, I can tell you that even though we as bettors are also excited about football getting here...let's not ever forget what the real reasons we wager on sports should be...to Make Money...and as an investor in this market, you should care very little where the profit comes from...as long as it keeps coming.

There are 3 different methods that I use each morning that gives me a "Bottom Line"... offensively, defensively, starting pitching, and bull-pens...And I began developing those various methods through the years as I began to get a clearer picture of what stats actually help to determine a ML winner because it is much different than when trying to beat a "point-spread". When we attempt to beat a point-spread, what we are ultimately doing is determining which side has the edge based on the "points" being given or taken. But when we try to beat a ML, it becomes much simpler if we are able to come up with a team's probability to win, and then compare that to the ML price and see if we have an overlay or an underlay.

The way to do that is by being able to determine the probable runs scored and runs allowed for the match-up...because in the end, that is how team win...by outscoring their opponent. Now through the years, I have been able to create some complex ways to do this and it takes a lot of work. I also know that the majority of sports bettors have too many other obligations to be able to do these things for each match-up. And the majority of bettors just don't have the luxery to apply these different formulas and equations to be as efficient at the oddsmakers...but that doesn't mean that there still aren't simpler ways to measure the different factors that go into determining the outcome of a MLB game...

So I am going to pass along to you...the very 1st method that I was shown when working in the offices that moved "Steam"...to help me quickly evaluate an offense and see which team has the advantage. And to be straight with you guys...it was actually from this very simple method that every other formula we use today was created...

First off as bettors, the only thing we are interested in when looking at a team's offense is their ability to score runs. There is absolutely NO OTHER, more important part of the game of baseball...because your pitcher can toss a 1 hitter, but if that 1 hit was a HR and his team was unable to score from thier hits...then his 1 hitter don't help cash a ticket. Bottom Line...grade offense by: On-Base % and Slugging %...because the ability to get on base, and then drive'em in is what we need to focus on. Now when we look at an MLB Match-up and want to compare offenses...we need something to compare them to...the measuring device we use is the "Individual League" for each team...meaning, we want to know how each team measures up compared to the other teams in their league...and here is how it is done....

1.) Take the NL/AL OB% and Multiply it by the SLUG%...for example...the NL OB% = .329 & SLUG% = .412...for a TOTAL of .136 (round off to the 1000th)

2.) Take the Team's OB% and Multiply it by the SLUG%...for example...the REDS OB% = .321 & SLUG% = .406...for a TOTAL of .130 (round off to the 1000th)

3.) Take the TEAMS TOTAL (.130) and DIVIDE by the NL TOTAL (.136) = .955...That simply tells you that the REDS OFFENSE is 5% Below the NL Average

Now you can do the same for thier opponent and easily be able to compare the offenses...and as time goes on you will be able to see how it relates to the price offered and determine the value offensively.

What I was also told to do, was to dig even further to get an even clearer and more accurate picture of the actual match-up at hand...So what I then did was do the exact same thing except this time cover the details instead of just an Overall Account :

1.) HOME or AWAY

2.) vs LHP or vs RHP

...and after that, you will have 3 seperate numbers that show you exactly how each team compares to the League Average for that particular game...So for Tonight's match-up...You would have 3 numbers for the REDS...Overall, Road, vs LHP since that is what the offense will be up against.

Remember, this is a very simple method, but it will definately go a long way in assuring you that you took the offense into account correctly when handicapping the match-up because you actually did the work it requires. I mean, just looking at the Batting Average really tells you nothing that will truely help determine a winner, nor does it tell you the true value, or lack there of...of the offense and how it compares for the particular match-up.

Like I said, since being shown this method...I have been able to come up with 2 more, with the help of some really sharp guys. And these methods allow me to be unbiased and instead be able to look at things the way they truely are...so that when I am ready to put it all together, and factor in the line, the info gathered from books and "steam", as well as finally using my experience...I am able to get a much better idea of how the game should play out...and most importantly is that the majority is based on actual facts and figures, rather than factors which are proven to be useless.

Next time you want to apply a qucik system to know which team has the "Real" edge offensively..this is definately a proven system that has survived decades and I was actually informed that it was one of the very first tried systems used by the "sharps" that gave them an edge over the books...because the books were not familiar with it yet. Below, I will list the "figures" for Both the NL and AL for all of the different factors you may want to apply them to. Keep in mind that they do change as time passes, but I have learned that as the season progresses...the changes are very small, so using only these from here to the Playoffs should be just fine...and if anything changes dramatically, I will pass it on. Thanks again for all your support and best of luck beating the books, Vegas-Runner...

 

                            NL                 AL

OVERALL =      .136              .139

HOME =             .141              .150

AWAY =             .131              .129          

vs RHP =          .133               .140

vs LHP =           .141              .139              

For Interleague Play...go ahead and take the MLB Average for each and use that for Both teams...

Please feel free to ask any questions and I will do my best to get to them...and I will also look to show you an easy method for defense and pitching...as well as some ways to help you build a foundation to create "Power-Ratings" of your own for Football where it becomes even much more crucial to winning and much more important towards determing the outcome of the game....VR                    

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