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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

FINAL "TRUE STEAM" for NCAAFB & NFL (10-10-09 & 10-11-09)

Since the sportsbooks first opened up their lines for this weekend's games back on Sunday evening, we have seen plenty of movement...Some of that movement was because the game got "Steamed" by the Wiseguys, while others were based on adjustments made by the sportsbooks due to injuries, weather, public money, ect...

In the first "TRUE STEAM" Blog that I posted on Monday, I went ahead and covered those bets that the Wiseguys made immediately after the sportsbooks started booking the action for the upcoming weekend's NFL & NCAAFB games...From my experience as a "Runner" both, back when I lived on the east coast, as well as when I was doing the same here on the Vegas Strip...I can tell you that the majority of the bets made as soon as the lines open up, are made based strictly on the fact that the line the sportsbook is offering...and the line the "Betting Syndicates" made for the game, are different...And more times than not, these Outfits will continue to pound a game until the sportsbooks adjust the number to where they feel it should be...

So in essence, the sportsbooks are at the mercy of these Outfits...and are forced to just sit there, holding their breaths, and hoping that what their consultants sent them and what they put out is on point...Otherwise, these Wiseguys will let them know immediately by unloading on those mistakes...And let's be honest, it just shows how beatable and weak some of these lines truely are because if they had confidence in their numbers, especially since they have the vig on their side...they would welcome the action, without needing to adjust the way they do now...

And what makes it most difficult for the sportsbooks, is that many times these Betting Syndicates will use the old "bait & switch" getting down a little money on one side...only to come back later in the week, or even just minutes before kick-off at times...and really unload on the other side...

Finally, throughout the week and also on game-day...the Wiseguys continue to hammer the books where they feel the lines are soft...And these bets are made after the Outfits have had some time to really work on the individual match-ups...

Since I've worked in that capacity for many years, and have many sources who still do...I'm going to let you in on those "moves" which are actually "TRUE STEAM" for this weekend...and which are NOT...VR


"TRUE STEAM" for NCAAFB (Sat 10-10-09) :

1.) MISSISSIPPI opened +5.5/+6.5....Now +4.5

I had to mention this one first, because it is one of my favorite "Steam Plays" this week...In fact, I not only used this as my "Pod-Cast GOW"...but I was able to Confirm & Upload this bet for my clients at +6...This line opened up at ALA -5.5 at CRIS and took some Bama money immediately because everyone else went ahead and opened it up at ALA -6.5...And we saw it fluctuate all day Monday, anywhere from a high of -7, to a low of -6...But on Wednesday evening and again on Thursday morning, the Wiseguys let the books know exactly what to do with the line...Because they went out and bought up all the MISS +6.5, +6, +5.5, & +5 that they could get their hands on...And by yesterday evening, except for a couple of shops that are known for taking "square" action, who still had it at 5...this line had dropped to 4.5 everywhere...This is spot where you can be sure the Wiseguys love MISSISSIPPI...Because the sportsbooks are expecting a ton of public money on Top Ranked Alabama...But rather than sit and wait for this line to possibly go to -7, it appears that the Outfits didn't want to miss the party, by having the other groups grab the points first...So once those first few Wiseguys took MISS, the rest decided to take it early also...Line Prediction : I don't think this could get much lower than 4.5 and it would take another "Buy-Order" to get it to 4, because as I mentioned, the betting public should come in heavy on Bama Saturday...Which may drive the line up some...But don't get fooled into thining it's a "Buy-Back" because it would have to drop some more to make it worth it to the Outfits...VR

2.) WAKE FOREST opened -10/-11....Now -12.5/-13

This is one of those bets that make it difficult to follow "Steam"...Because when CRIS opened the line up on Sunday at -11 for the following week, some Sharp money came in on Maryland...which forced them to drop it to -10...And that's where the rest of the books opened the number...Between Monday and Thursday Morning, this line was bouncing back and forth between -10 & -11...depending on what each book had pending...But then, on Thursday afternoon...the "Buy-Order" was officially sent out on WF -10...And since the books weren't sure if this was simply a move to get off Maryland, they went ahead and adjusted the line slowly, and in 1/2 Pt incriments...And the Outfits couldn't have been happier because they weren't done yet...In fact, they sent out another "Order" on WF -11...Those who moved to -12.5 right away, like Olympic avoided anymore "Wiseguy Money"...But those who didn't, got hit once again at -11.5...So when we woke up this morning, everyone was either at -12.5 or -13 on WF...Line Prediction : The cat's out of the bag and we all know who the Sharps really like...But the books I've spoke to said they have been getting, and also expect...2-way action on this game by the Betting Public now that it's so high...And unless this got up near 14, I don't see a "Buy-Back" on the horizon, so if you like WF...this may be the best number you get...VR

3.) LOUISVILLE opened +2.5....Now +1 (NOT STEAM)

This is one of those games that was actually moved by "AIR"...meaning the books didn't take any Wiseguy money and once a few of them adjusted for the injuries (RB & WR are Questionable)...the rest followed...And although the books adjusted from 2.5 down to 1, it is NOT "TRUE STEAM"...And to be perfectly honest, in my experience many times as soon as these Outfits confirm that one of these "questionable" players actually will be playing...they will go ahead and take advantage of the adjustment, by coming in on that side...So in this game, I would not be surprised at all to see the Wiseguys "Steam" SO MISS -1 as soon as they Confirm the injury report...Especially since I'm sure their ratings show that there is Value present...VR

4.) UCLA opened +6.5/+6....Now +3.5

This line opened at ORE -6 at Cris and -6.5 at the other off-shore shops...And on that Sunday evening, it appeared that different Outfits had a different view of what this line should be..and where it may be headed...Because after bouncing back and forth beween 6 & eventually evened out at ORE -6 when the night was through...And that's where it stayed until Tuesday, because that's when the Wiseguys decided to "Steam" UCLA and grab the +6...Since this is a marquee game, and the sportsbooks expect plenty of money to be bet on ORE by the betting public on Saturday...the books took their time adjusting for the "Steam", and lowered the number by 1/2 Pt incriments...This allowed those Outfits who were looking to bet UCLA, to keep on betting them...And that's what they did, taking UCLA +5.5, +5, +4.5, & +4...And we are now looking at ORE -3.5 everywhere...This is one of those spots, where I believe the sportsbooks are in a tough spot...Because even if he Outfits decide that there is Value on UCLA at +3.5...what can the books do ?? If they drop the line to 3, then not only did they open up a HUGE MIDDLE for the Outfits...but then that also means they will be forced to take all that "Public Money" on ORE at -3...Once again, giving them a big disadvantage and putting themselves in a position where they can get middled by ALL the bettors...Line Prediction : They may be stuck here on 3.5 whether they like it or not...and it would take a lot of Wiseguy Money to make them drop it to 3...Which I don't think we will see because they already got plenty of money down on UCLA...Keep your eye on this one, because what they do on game-day will tell us exactly what they think...VR


"TRUE STEAM" for NFL (Sun 10-11-09) :

1.) UNDER opened 43 NE/DEN....Now 41

This is definitely a Marquee Match-Up and the reason I chose it is because the move is very significant...Not only because it's a game that will get plenty of public money, but more importantly, because just like there are "Key Numbers" on the "Spreads"...there are also "Key Numbers" on "Totals"...None more "Key" than "41"...The Total for this game opened up 43 everywhere, because once Cris opened it and didn't receive any money on either side...the rest of the sportsbooks felt safe that the number was correct, and went ahead and also opened at 43...Once again, this looked like a "planned attack" by the Wiseguys because let's not forget, "Betting Limits" are not just lowered at times on the opening numbers...but they are almost always lowered on "Totals"...So it makes perfect sense not to tip your hand until you are able to attack a handful of books get the most money down, at the desired number...And that's exactly what the Wiseguys did, because within a few hours of almost every book posting lines for the following week's games...the Outfits went to work...And they began "Steaming" UNDER 43, 42.5, 42, on Sunday night & then UNDER 41.5 on Monday morning...And now we are looking at 41's all across the board...The reason this is significant is because it is now on the biggest "Key Total"...And any adjustment from here on out will really give us a look at how the books see this game going...Because if they are willing to lower it more, ultimately giving the Wiseguys an incredible middle over Totals of 41, 42, & 43...then you can be sure that they feel the Wiseguys are on the right side and the books aren't afraid of allowing the betting public to come in and bet Over on Sunday, at a much lower number which would really put them at risk...Then again, this is also now at a Total which gives the Outfits plenty of options...Because if this was just a set up, then we will see them work a "Middle"...but if we don't, especially with these numbers, then we can be sure that they absolutely love this game to go UNDER...The reason I say we need to monitor this Total is because in the NFL, especially with Totals...the Wiseguys have been knows to really try and work middles, rather than take actual positions...And on a marquee game like this, that likelyhood is even greater...So my Line Prediction here is to WAIT...and let the adjustments made by the books on game-day, dictate to us the kind of move that this truely is...VR


Those are not only some of the more significant positions taken by the Wiseguys this week...but they are also the type of moves that I feel will allow cappers to begin to reason at higher and higher levels...By getting inside the minds of some of these Outfits and seeing the kind of games they look for and more importantly, the kind of numbers they go after...

I wanted to stress that because I know that there are a lot of "moves" on this week's board...And I could probably write 10 Blogs covering them...But in the limited time that I have, I prefer to chose those games that I either like most...or the ones that offer the most educational value...

Finally, we also are seeing plenty of "cross-over" moves this week...Where one team goes from being a Fav, to being a Dog...And you have to be really careful on those games because many times, those are the ones that are guaranteed to get "Middled"...Because if the Outfits can get "+ Points" on BOTH teams...then they will almost always take it...And that makes it really difficult to know where the "True Value" really lies...I plan on covering a couple of these type of games over the next few weeks...But since we are only on our 2nd week, I wanted to cover some of these easier concepts fully before we move on to the tougher "reads" of these lines...

Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner

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