Defense is POWER!
Posted by The King Maker
Just look at the NFL teams that have the most success covering the spread this season:
Tennessee, The Giants, Baltimore, Arizona and Philly are your top five teams against the spread, and three of those teams are in the top 5 in terms of total defense, and one of them, Tennessee, is #7 in that category. The top 5 ATS teams are 30-10 ATS. All but one of those 5 teams are in the top 10 in total defense (Zona is #12).
Pittsburgh has the #1 defense, but they've been hampered by injuries, so their 4-4 ATS mark may look weaker than expected, but I think it's still impressive considering their issues in the first half of the season.
A quick glance at the scores last week will show you that the better defense won (not always covering) all but two of the games, and those losses occurred between defenses that were actually EQUAL in terms of statistical numbers.
I think we should emphasize the need to pay attention to the defensive status of the teams we play with. Our ATS indicators are clearly pointing toward the defensive teams. In our RUSH DOMINANCE heirarchy we are actually looking far deeper in to the numbers, but I think it would be helpful to point out some of the teams that are in a position to overmatch their opponent on Sunday.
Who has the better defense (no particular order of importance):
1. Pittsburgh is the #1 Defense and Indy is still sporting the #22 offense. The line is fairly pricey at -3.5 for the Steelers, but it carries some weight. Remember that Pittsburgh's Rush Defense is holding their opponents to an average of 70 yards per game, and Indy has had their own issues with the WORST Rush Offense in the NFL! Food for thought, right?
2. Baltimore is the #2 Defense in the land. They have a tougher challenge because they face a Houston team that is #4 in total offense, but they are not the best in pass protection, and their Rush Offense is actually sitting at #16. Baltimore is even better than the Steelers in stopping the run (64 yards per game), so don't expect Houston to grind the Ravens into the ground.
3. Tennessee might be the strongest play tomorrow in terms of our RUSH DOMINANCE wagers, But the Bears are incredibly stout against the run. The big matchup here is between the Tennessee offensive line (only 4 sacks allowed all season) and the Bear defense, which is rather average in their sack totals (16). I'm having a hard time in trying to reconcile the low sack numbers of the Bear defense with their ability to force a ton of 3 and outs. They also limit opposing quarterbacks to a dismal 70.97 QB rating! We have some work to do before we solidify a play on Tennessee.
4. Carolina will field a far superior defense against their opponent (Oakland).
5. The Jets outman St. Louis from a defensive standpoint as well.
I hope this helps. This a fairly simplistic approach to a far larger situation, but it bears pointing out.
Good luck whatever you decide to do. I'll post my plays in this blog as we get closer to kickoff...
The King Maker's NFL record: 15-10 (+2.15)
Let's go with These plays for starters: RUSH DOM PLAYS
Baltimore Ravens +1 (-110) EASY WINNER!
1-Unit
Tennessee Titans -3 EVEN WINNER!
1-Unit
RUSH DOMINANCE PLAYS ARE 5-1 (+4.80 Units)