The King's Tattle-Tail Stat
The King Maker Hoops System relies heavily on EFFICIENCY. Basketball is a game of rhythm. It's a sport of tempo; and nothing kills a logical wager more than data that contradicts your surface indicators. In saying this, I mean to say that if we chart a power rebounding advantage for Team A and they are averaging 42 Ribby's per game, but they are only hitting a 41% field goal percentage, then the stats do not correspond!
That lousy 41% FG% should not exist for a power rebounding number like 42! In this case we toss the wager in the garbage, because the FG% stat is "tattling", or betraying the dominant rebounding data.
Finding the "Tattle" is the key to capping over 300 teams. As the season progresses, you need to find your "tattles" and put them in your back pocket. You immediately create an edge against the public when you train yourself to "seek the tattle-tail". The line is set for the public, and the public NEVER senses contradictory statistics. The average bettor will scan the basic statistical surface noise and make their call. IF YOU MADE IT THIS FAR IN READING THIS ARTICLE, then you are not the average bettor.
WE want CONSISTANT, NON-TATTLING DATA!
So let's look at Georgia Tech: Their schedule is weak, and they lost to Penn State to go 4-1 and they are a 5 or 6 point favorite to Vandy.
Vandy is a team in transition, with what appears to be a finesse oriented operation, that may actually live or die by their perimeter game.
The line at BookMaker just dropped from -6 to -5.5 so the public (or the money) is clearly doubtful of GT's ability to cover anything above the key number 5.
At first glance, I liked Vandy as well, but I saw something that gave a decent indication of the current weaknesses of the Commodore attack.
Vandy shoots 43% from the floor (compared to Georgia Tech's 50%) and Vandy's poor shooting average is backed up by a pitiful rebounding average (35 per game vs weak opponents!) GT is grabbing 42 rebounds per game.
For Tech, the FG% and the Ribby Average are confirming their strength and attack pattern: Tech funnels their offense into the key and inside the arc.
For Vandy, the FG%/Ribby overlap clearly shows a team that is currently flitting around the arc, and continually working the edges with its skill players. This is why they lost by 19 points to Illinois Chicago.
In this case we have data that is not betraying the surface noise. There are no tattle in the FG%/Ribby Overlap, so we can make an educated guess that Vandy will be the LOW PERCENTAGE TEAM in this match-up. There are no "tattle-tails". Apparently, Vandy is still vulnerable to falling out of rhythm because the appear to be reliant on the perimeter shot.
The key here is that Tech seems to have a dominant perimeter defense! 10 steals per game and a positive ATR (Assist-to-Turnover Ratio) leads me to believe that they have the wheels to press Vandy on the edges.
So, if the perimeter is Vandy's pathway top success, and Techs perimeter defense is strong, then we have the edge.
On another note, look at Vandy's low steal and block numbers. The 5 steals per game indicated a defense that sits back on its heels, AND THIS BENEFITS A FRONTCOURT SEEKING TEAM LIKE TECH! We have established that Tech is a legitimate inside team, so if Vandy doesn't press the Tech guards, then they have more time to set up and run their offense.
Clear Pathways to the hoop! We want the path of least resistance.
Tech is better on the boards.
Tech is better to the hoop.
Tech is better on perimeter defense.
Tech will have a better opportunity to set up.
I would like to write more on this:
Georgia Tech -5 (-120) at BookMaker
Throughout the long season you will see me write "CLEAR PATHWAYS TO THE HOOP". This should be one of them.