Almost every year that a horse has wins in the first two legs of the Triple Crown under its belt, and this year for Calvin Borel, a jockey with two Triple Crown wins under his belt, the Belmont Stakes became one Triple Crown race too many.
The same was true for us and our Belmont Package. The Belmont Stakes was just one Triple Crown race too many. Although many other racing service and free handicapper with the same selections would have proclaimed the day a big winner, we called it a loser. It was not the Wall Street Syndicate's selections that fell down. It was the recommended play on those selections that was to blame.
There are two equally important parts to horse race betting. The first is the selections. The second is the manner in which those selections are bet. In racing, as a result of the many ways a horse can be bet, 10 people with the exact same 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices in a race can have 10 different results.. If no instructions are given as to the proportional weight to be given to various types of bets, and the types of bets recommended, as well as to how to combine the horses in those types of bets, then one person can be a big loser while the next person is a big winner with the exact same selections.
Even the most experienced race bettors cannot determine the best way to combine the horses and the bsst type of bets to make if they don't know the comparative strength of the handicap. For example, let's say we have the #1 as the 1st choice, the #2 as the second choice, and the #3 as the third choice. Some of the ways the race may be bet are determined by the payouts, but some of the way the race is bet must be based on the comparative probabilities of the three horses.
If the #1 is a strong stick out, then it may pay only to play him as the key on top in exactas and triples. If all three horses are closely matched in strength, it may necessitate betting them in a box, and if the prices don't warrant that many combinations, then not to bet the exacta or triple at all. If the top two horses are closely matched, and the #3 pick is a much weaker choice, it would make sense to only box the top two choices in exactas, and play the #3 choice only for 3rd in the triples. The handicapper alone knows those comparative strengths, and if the handicapper does not tell the bettor those comparative strengths, even the experienced bettor will be at a loss to bet the race in the most advantageous manner.
For the inexperienced bettor, who is not familiar with the expected payouts on various types of bets for which payouts are not posted, such as triples, superfectas and prick-3's, it is impossible to determine the best type of bet without very specific instructions from the handicapper as to how to bet and how to combine the horses..
It is for that reason that, unlike many services, which merely throw several horses at you in a race and then claim the payout on any exotic or horse that happens to come in, without ever subtracting the investment needed to get that payout, we give clients:
1. An exact order of finish,
2. A proportional amount to bet that can be used as a strength rating, and
3. The way we suggest the race can be most advantageously bet as to the types of bets and the horse combinations within those bets to achieve a long term favorable result.
We lose some big hits that way, but we also lose many fewer bets, we don't have bets that win but lose money after you subtract the investment, and we don't get buried by the huge vig in racing. In the long term we are better off. We also always report results to clients after subtracting their investment and all losses on recommended bets. Finally, if we didn't recommend it, we don't claim to have won it.
The reason that so many other professional race handicappers don't do things the way I just described is tht it locks in their results. Sports betting is like shooting pigs in a pen compared to horse racing. Without using various tricks in reporting results, the majority of paid and free handicappers would never appear to be winners. Only a tiny number of people or groups can consistently beat the huge vig in racing and win.
On Belmont Day this past Saturday, we began the day with a loss in the first race, we passed the second race, and our first choice in the 3rd, a long shot named Ricoriatoa placed. We told clients to play 10 Win, 20 Place and 20 show. Ricoriatoa paid 9.20 to place and 6.30 to show. After subtracting our investment on the across the board and the investment on all recommended exotics as well as the loss in the 1st race, we were plus $37.
The Syndicate had one horse picked in the 4th Race. I gave it to Crowne Club members. Then, between updating the Club phone lines and updating the Pregame Race Package phone line, a call came in cancelling the horse. That happens every once in awhile. It could be something their experts saw in the paddock. It was too late to cancel to Crowne Club members. Once the play goes up, I must count it because some people got it. I had not yet updated the Pregame lines, however, and I was able to pass the race on a late update to them. If the horse won I would have counted the win for Crowne Club Members, but not for Pregame clients. The horse lost. I counted the loss for Crowne Club members but not for Pregame clients who never got the horse. The across the board bet recommended to Crowne Club members totaled $50. Thus, for the rest of the day, Crowne Club member results would be $50 less than Pregame Package purchasers. We'll continue the results based on Pregame.
We lost the 5th and had the winner of the 6th. The winner paid a small $3.80, and after subtracting the $20 win bet, the two recommended $10 exactas and the $4 of Triple combiunations, we netted a tiny $6 loss on the race.
After all the wins were added, and losses and investment amounts subtracted, Pregame clients were down $177 going into the Belmont Stakes.
Now here's the difference between us and so many other professional race handicappers. In the Belmont, the Syndicate had four horses, the 6-7-2-4. All four horses finished in the top four positions in the race. The exacta came in 4-2 paying $121. The Triple 4-2-7 paid $295. The Superfects 4-2-7-6 paid $852. That's more than enough to have made it a BIG winning day for us. The 4- horse box exacta would have cost $24, the 4 horse triple box would have cost $48, and the 4-horse superfecta box would have cost $48. The payout was $1268. After the cost, the win is $1148.
Most paid race handicappers, and most free handicappers would have taken that $1148 win. We didn't. We counted ourselves as losing $80 on the race. Why? Because unlike those other guys, we don't call ourselves winners after we see the results of the race, and whether or not we recommended that you make the bet. We also tell you exactly how to combine the horses. If the exact combinations we give don't win, we don't call ourselves winners.
We did not tell anyone to put the #4 on top in any of our exacta, triple, or superfecta combinations. As I said in a my article "Belmont Bets to Avoid," the triples and superfectas at Belmont have a huge takout. If you simply box them willy nilly, you may get a big hit like in the Belmont Stakes on Belmont Day, but you will end up buried long term. They must be bet judiciously. We did just that, and we counted ourselves losers on the race even though we had the correct four finishers in the race. Sure, some clients boxed the four horses. Congratulations to them. We didn't have the horses bet that way. We consider our betting recommendations as to proportional amounts, types of bets and combinations to be as important a part of what clients get as the selections.
We passed the 12th, and our horse picked on top in the 13th came in 2nd, paying $6.20 and $4.80. We bet it $10 Win, $20 Place, $20 Show. After subtracting the total bet of $50 and a 2-horse $10 exacta box which lost, we netted $40 on the race.
We ended the day losing $217. We size our bets based on someone who normally bets $100 per game on a sporting event. That's a little over a 2-unit loss on a day when other racing services and tout sheets would have proclaimed a $931 win with the exact same picks.
We had just one Triple Crown race too many this year. We won't be back until the Breeders' Cup.