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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    06/08/2017 10:19 AM

A DAY AT THE RACES

What a day it was!  A terrific day!  A GIANT day!  It was the kind of day most people have never had in their lives in horse racing.  It was the kind of day the Wall Street Syndicate has produced for us many times in the past, and hopefully will produce many times again in the future. 

The first race post time at Pimlico on Preakness Saturday was a ridiculous 10:15 AM Eastern time, and 7:15 AM for those in Las Vegas and west.  If you got up late, you were lucky.  On Derby Day, the Syndicate won right off the bat in the 1st race, but on Preakness Day the 1st race was one of only three races in which they lost.  In the 1st race, we recommended a mere $10 to win on their weak top pick, a $4 exacta box on their top three choices, and a $2 Triple box on the same three choices. Total loss -$46.  IF you woke up late, you got lucky because there was very little losing after that.  

In the second race we recommended $50 to win and $100 to place on the #1, which looked like it might be a big favorite.  We instructed everyone that the Syndicate wanted at least 1-2 on the horse and that if it was 2-5 or less 10 minutes before post it was a no play.  I wasn't able to watch the odds of the second race, so I don't know if the odds were at 2-5 ten minutes before post or not, and I don't know if subscribers bet it or not.  If subscribers did bet the horse, it won paying 2.80 and 2.20.  That's a $30 pick up, which would have made up for most of the loss on the 1st race, but, even though the horse won, I made the assumption that no one bet it and I didn't count the win.  Nevertheless, the fact remains it was a winning pick.  

We passed the third race, and most people had awoken by the time the 4th race rolled around.  In the 4th race, we had a $40 win bet on the top choice, a $5 exacta box on the top three choices, and a $2 Triple box on those top three choices. The top pick finished in a dead heat for second with the Syndicate's 3rd place pick. It was a lucky loss. The horse that won was the Syndicate's 2nd choice.  It paid $28.80. The dead heat set up two exactas and two triples. We won both exactas in our 3-horse exacta box, and both triples in our 3-horse triple box. The second place horse finishing first raised the payout on our exactas and triples by much more than the $40 we lost when the top choice didn't win.  
In all, for the 4th race, the exacta combining our the 2nd choice with our 3rd choice paid $73, and the exacta that combined our 2nd choice with our 1st choice paid $47.80.  That adds up to a combined $120.80 comeback for every $12 box.  Since we recommended a $5 exacta box totaling a $30 risk, our return was 2.5 x $120.80 = $302.  The profit for our $30 bet was $272.  But we weren't done.  The two triples in our $12 triple box added up to a $322.40 return.  Our profit was $310.40 on the triples.  In total on the race we made $272 + $310.40 -$40 for a tidy $542.40 net profit on the 4th race.  

By that time, everyone was probably hungry, and the win was enough for breakfast at Tiffany's, complete with Holly Golightly for company.  To that point our total on the day, not counting the 2nd race win, was $496.40.

For the rest of the day we would be playing with the house's money.  We would need to lose every other bet for the day to break even.  If we won anything else at all, we would be guaranteed to be winners.  We won plenty else!

On to the 5th race.  This race was the second race of the total of just four races out of 10 in which we lost money. Our $10 Daily Double for the 4th and 5th went down, as did our recommended $10 to win and $20 to place on what was the Syndicate's single choice in the 5th.  Subtract $40 from our total.  That gave us $456.40.

The losing didn't last very long, however.  In the 6th Race the Syndicate had only one horse picked again, Sumacha'hot. Anyone who can properly pronounce that horse's name will get a $10 discount coupon for my Belmont Day package. Here's a hint. The apostrophe is not a typo. It represents a glottal stop.  Just one word of warning, if you are not a Klingon, don't risk your throat health even trying to properly pronounce the name.  I gave the horse out to subscribers by number only, and it won paying $7.00 and $4.80.  We had recommended $20 to win and $20 to place on the horse.  Our return for our $40 bet was $118, and a net profit of $78 on the race.  That brought our win total back up to $534.40. 

Then, in the 7th race, our top choice finished second again, and just as before, it was a lucky second.  The Syndicate's second choice won again. It was the #7 horse, again. It paid $20.20, and the $2 exacta paid $67.80.  We had invested $24 in exactas and collected $135.60.  The net win, after subtracting the $24 bet, was $111.60.  But better yet, we had all the Syndicate's choices in the 7th tied up in Daily Doubles with their lone pick in the 6th, which had won.  The $2 Daily Double paid a huge $112.60.  We collected $225.20 for our total of $22 bet on the doubles, and we netted yet another huge profit of $203.20.  The total win on the 7th race was $111.60 + $203.20.  But wait!  We also won the Triple AGAIN! The triple paid $284.60.  We only recommended a $1 box, however. Stupid, gutless us. So we collected half the payout, which amounted to $142.30.  After subtracting our total investment in the triple we had an additional profit of $130.30.  That brought the total profit on the race up to $457.10 minus the $20 we lost on the win bet.  

Add the $437.10 net on the 7th race to the $534.40 we had won for the day to that point, and our profit ballooned to +$971.50 for the day.  

The Syndicate passed the 8th and 9th races, so we suggested that everyone take a 2-hour lunch break.  Off we went to the steakhouse for a fancy winner's lunch.  We came back at 4:00 PM Eastern for the 10th Race selections.  

In the 10th race, the Syndicate's top pick won again, paying $5.40 this time.  We had recommended a $20 win bet and collected $54.  We had a $4 three-horse exacta box and $1 three-horse triple box on the Syndicate's top three choices in the race.  The three 10th race selections came in 1st, 3rd and 4th, when Silver Edition got in between them for 2nd.  Take Silver Edition out of the race, and we would have hit another exacta and triple. Close, but no cigar.  Our total risk on the race was $50 and our return was $54 for a tiny $4 profit, but still a profit.  Total profit for the day was now $975.50.  

In the 11th race, the Syndicate produced their 3rd losing race of the day.  We lost $16 in doubles between the 10th & 11th, a $10 win bet, a $20 place bet, a $4 exacta box, as well as a $1 triple box. The total loss on the race was -$76 and it brought our win down to $899.50   Boo hoo.  That was by far our worst loss on the day, but more winning was to come.

In the Preakness, the Syndicate came back again on Musket Man. You thought maybe, after making him their sole pick in the Derby, they'd give up on him despite watching him close like a shot, just missing 2nd after a world of trouble in the race?  We played $10 Win, $10 Place and $20 Show on Musket Man, and an additional $15 in exactas.  No triples.  Musket Man came in 3rd to two horses that were simply better than he was yesterday. No excuses. He paid $5.00 to show and a return of $50 for our $20 show bet.  We had invested $55 in total in the race and the net loss was a baby -$5.

Our total was $894.50 going into the lucky 13th race.  The Syndicate had only one pick again in the 13th and they won again to close out the day.  The horse paid $5.00, and we picked up just enough to bring us back over the $900 mark at $909.50 profit for the day, less the cost of our fancy winner's lunch of course.

Our recommended bet amounts were based on what we believe to be proper money management for someone who normally bets $100 per game on sporting events.  We invested LESS than $100 in every race except the 2nd race, which I didn't count even though the horse won.  

When the smoke cleared, the Syndicate had selections in 10 races, just like last year on Preakness Day.  We made a profit in 6 of the 10  races in which they had selections.  Our highest loss on a race was -$76.  Our highest win on a race was $532.40.  The six winning races made a total profit of $1106.50.  The four losing races lost a combined -$167 (the $30 difference from the net win above is attributable to the $30 in the second race which wasn't counted in the official total).   Their top choice won in 4 of the 10 races.  That's one less winner than in last year's 10 picks.  In addition to the four wins, their top choice horses also produced two seconds and a third.  That's 70% in the money.  Not as good as their 100% in the money on Derby Day, but no one can be 100% all the time.  

On the way, we played exactas in 4 races and won 50% of them, which beats the Syndicate's 33% win percentage on exacta races in last year's Preakness.  We also bet triples in 4 races and won 50% of those.  We only won 1 out of the 4 (25%) of the Daily Doubles we bet, but when two of those doubles consisted of just one comhination of horses (one horse in each race), and one consisted of just 2 combinations, and the third consisted of 4 combinations (one horse in one race with 4 in the next) and the payout on the winning double was 55-1, a 25% win rate is more than high enough.  If fact, with odds of 55-1 you could hit just 2%, lose 98%, and still be a winner. Winning 1 out of 8 double combinations, we hit the doubles at a 6 times higher percentage than we needed in order to be winners.     

If you normally bet more than $100 per game adjust what your win would have been accordingly.  If you bet less than $100 per game normally, you need to go back and recalculate.  You can't just divide because you can't reduce the exotics below $1 and therefore, for example you would have picked up half the $100 player's win on the triple, and not a mere 1/4 of it in the 4th race, and you would have gotten the same $142.30 along with the $100 players on that $1 triple, and not 1/4 of it, so your total win should be higher than 1/2 the total for a $50 bettor and also higher than 1/4 for a $25 bettor. No matter how much you play, it was well worth the mere $49 cost of the selections.

Racing selections from the Wall Street crew will be back on Belmont Day.  If you missed the Preakness, don't miss the Belmont.  If you were on with us for the Preakness, I know you'll be back.  Keep watching my pick page for the package.

A professional sports bettor and card player for 24 years, Rob is known as being as an expert handicapper and bettor, as well as one of the few sources for picks of the professional sports betting groups... Read more

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