Nice weekend, eh fellas?
Well, life is getting nicer! I'm the $12 (or EVEN LESS with the coupon you can get in Marco's daily video!) Summer Sizzler Capper for Monday! I mean, this is a hell of a deal, and for those that only like to get aboard the Bebe bandwagon when the price is right, it's tough to beat the ridiculously low rate ($6) that you can get my Top Play for, this evening.
As recaps go, we passed on the NBA game, as I just did not feel like the value was there, and it turned out to be a great move. We SWEPT the MLB card yesterday, winning with the Royals and Angels, both plays made at roughly Pick 'em price. Two affordable winners to add to the Game of the Month winner on Saturday, and if not for the Saturday freebies losing by 1 run apiece, we'd be like real life versions of Scrooge McDuck, swimming in a giant money bin.
Short card today, so some of you guys might be able to guess where I'm going with my Top Play, but I still think the $6 is worth it (with coupon). You guys know I don't push much on you, but at that price, even I feel comfortable hawking my wares. Hah! Let's handicap.
Sports Wagering: MLB
Interleague Play
Mariners @ Cardinals (-300) with a total of 7.5; L. French vs. A. Wainwright;
This is an awfully pricey game, considering the Mariners really aren't that horrible. I could see, perhaps, the Pirates and maybe the Orioles as a dog this huge in St. Louis, but the Mariners? Oh well, we'll take what we're given. Lucas French gets the nod, acquired last year in a trade with the Tigers, the lefty throws mostly batting practice fastballs and a good changeup, and I wonder if the Cards don't struggle a tad to adjust to his stuff. What we saw last year was that French was effective his first and second time through a lineup, but once teams knew he was somewhat gimmicky, they started hitting him hotter. Mariners in the first-5 innings isn't insane, Mariners for the full game is risky, and Cardinals for the full game is all kinds of nutty at this price.
Leans: Mariners-1
Brewers @ Angels (-165) with a total of 9.5; R. Wolf vs. J. Saunders;
Carlos Gomez is 4-for-8 off Saunders;
Juan Rivera is 3-for-3 off Wolf since '05 with a HR;
Robb Quinlan is 4-for-6 off Wolf.
Joe Saunders is coming off 2 consecutive very strong starts, and the Angels are absolutely red-hot right now. The big concern on the Angels side is that Fernando Rodney and Brian Fuentes, if I'm not mistaken (and we can look this up) worked in each of the final 2 games of their series sweep over the Dodgers. So, what was good for us yesterday in our play on the Angels, would be scary today if we played the Angels against the Brewers. Who would close the game for LA? Tough to say, when both the setup man and closer need a day off. On the Brewers side, well, they just continue to stink at home, but have started to play a tiny bit better on the road, no thanks to Randy Wolf. Wolf got crushed for 5 homers in his last start against the Cubbies, and with the Angels hitting as well as they have been, this doesn't look like a good spot for him. His 6.35 lifetime ERA against LA doesn't make it look any better.
Leans: Angels-1, Over-3
Blue Jays @ Padres (-120) with a total of 7; S. Marcum vs. J. Garland;
Situationally, this is not a great spot for Toronto. They come to Petco off a very, very tough series in the Rockies, and those of us (such as myself) that have watched the Dodgers play in Colorado for so many years have come to understand that the series immediately following one in Coors is heavily reliant on the starting pitching, since the pen generally gets blown out in the altitude. So, here, Marcum is going to need to go deep in the game, and to his credit, he certainly can. The Padres are more patient than most folks realize, though, and they have no issue making aces work extremely hard, and staying aggressive on the bases. This is seemingly a battle of two starters that probably need to regress to the mean a tad. Marcum is coming off 2 rough starts against the Rays, and Garland didn't pitch all that well on the Padres roadie through Philly and New York. So, which guy bounces back quicker? We know Garland has been a wizard at leaving men on base at home, and we know Toronto likes to score with that uppercut swing. I can't help but think that that series in Coors is really going to hurt the Jays.
Leans: Padres-3
Orioles @ Giants (-205) with a total of 7.5; C. Tillman vs. J. Sanchez;
Here come the radioactive Orioles again. After showing signs of life for 1 day, they got swept at home by the Mets, who, supposedly, stink on the road. That's a true testament to how bad the Orioles are this year. Now, they have to fly cross-country to take on a guy with some of the nastiest stuff in the Bigs, when he can harness it. I have to believe he'll harness it, here. The O's can't hit with runners on base, and now we're putting them in a giant pitchers' park. I'm intrigued by that extremely low total. I know the O's can't really score, but the Giants have actually been playing to the over in 8 of 9 prior to last night, and if you count yesterday's as an over (instead of a push) it's 9 of 10. They're not scoring 10 runs a game, but the Giants have been getting to 5 or 6 pretty consistently, with a couple 3's mixed in there. The Orioles had played to 4 straight unders prior to yesterday's game, and considering how bad the O's pen is, I just wonder if San Francisco doesn't put up 6-7 runs by themselves. I guess it depends on how well you think Tillman pitches, and he'll be okay.
Leans: Over-2